We Have Underestimated Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Author: Greg Valliere
May 1, 2024
WE’RE FREQUENTLY ASKED whether the threat of violence is a legitimate concern as the 2024 presidential election approaches. The answer is that it can’t be ruled out. And we’re frequently asked about Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and the answer is yes — we have underestimated him.
AS POLICE BECAME DOMINANT AT COLLEGE CAMPUSES, Donald Trump added an ominous note yesterday. When asked whether violence could erupt if he loses the election, Trump said “If we don’t win, you know, it depends.” He didn’t rule out — or condemn — violence; Trump told Time Magazine that “it always depends on the fairness of the election.”
IN A REMARKABLY CANDID INTERVIEW, Trump declared that he would “absolutely” seek to pardon Jan. 6 rioters and said that he would use the military to sweep illegal immigrants out of the country. It’s clear that immigration will be a dominant issue this fall.
THERE’S NO ONE IN POLITICS TODAY who can remotely come close to Trump’s ability to dominate the news, and he put on a master class yesterday, as his violation of a gag order generated a modest fine. Sources are repotting that he is eyeing a bigger headline — a jail sentence, which would be a fundraising bonanza and a publicity windfall.
THE PROSPECT OF A JAIL SENTENCE, even for a day or two, would allow Trump to reiterate that his trials are a witch hunt by out-of-control prosecutors. His Republican base agrees.
MEANWHILE, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION has seemingly lost its footing. The prospect that Israel will soon invade Rafah raises the certainty of more civilian casualties and more protests in the U.S. An ongoing war would be disastrous for the Democrats.
POLLS SHOW that the public overwhelmingly believes Biden is doing a poor job on the Gaza war, and with inflation still not subdued, Biden has once again become the underdog; nearly 50% of Americans told CNN in a recent poll that under no circumstances would they vote for Biden.
WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE that if the election was held today, Trump would win. But it’s six months away, plenty of time for Trump or Biden to roil the campaign with incendiary remarks — they both are gaffe machines, capable of changing the narrative overnight.
THIS DISMAL OUTLOOK may continue to erode consumer confidence and keep the markets jittery; a hawkish Federal Reserve may not give Biden the economic news he needs in the campaign. Americans increasingly say they want another option, and we have to concede that we have underestimated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is worrying both the Biden and Trump camps.
KENNEDY SOON MAY GET POLLS in the high teens as voters shudder over Trump vs. Biden. That’s not enough to win the presidency, of course, but it would be enough to scramble the race and produce a result that makes the U.S. look even more unstable — with neither Trump nor Biden coming close to 50% in the popular vote.
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