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What Washington Insiders Tell Us — Off the Record

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Insights and Market Perspectives

What Washington Insiders Tell Us — Off the Record

Author: Greg Valliere

March 15, 2023

EVERYONE IN THIS TOWN loves to dish, usually after a drink or three, and we make a mental note to get their opinions into the Morning Bullets. Nothing is on the record here, because this city loves to leak. Alice Roosevelt Longworth set the standard decades ago when she famously said: “If you have nothing good to say, come sit by me.”

SO HERE’S WHAT WE ARE HEARING, from sources who say “not for attribution,” knowing that their comments may get published:

Joe Biden: His image as a doddering old man is flatly dismissed in both parties. “He’s ruthless when he has to be,” one Republican admirer told us. “He’ll drill for oil in Alaska because low gasoline prices are a key to his re-election, and he’ll pivot on a dime to embrace anti-crime measures.” The left increasingly dislikes Biden but he’s the favorite — for now — to win re-election by default.

The dominant issue: It may be Social Security, and the Democrats are happy to demogogue. “We”ll portray the Republicans as willing to push grandma off a cliff,” one Democrat told us. As for the budget deficit, no one seems very concerned — “if the markets aren’t concerned, why should we care,” a Democrat says (off the record).

Volodymyr Zelensky: Most of Washington — including us — views him as a great hero, but in private there’s exasperation that he won’t even consider negotiations. Make no mistake — everyone in this town is watching the polls on Ukraine; the public may become weary of this expensive war.

Jerome Powell’s halo is slipping: The Fed Chairman elicits grumbling on the left and right. “He’s made a lot of mistakes, and the Fed’s regulators missed some obvious red flags in Silicon Valley,” one moderate Republican tells us.

The economy: It’s stunning how poorly politicians understand economic issues. They think the economy is in terrible shape and of course it’s surprisingly strong. “We’ll win in 2024 because of inflation,” says one Republican staffer.

Donald Trump: He’s reviled in this city, but he’s also feared. “There’s a narrow path for him to win the Republican nomination,” a political analyst tells us, “but winning the general election is an uphill fight.” Many sources think Trump will consider a third-party run if he can’t win the GOP nomination. We disagree.

Trump indictments: Everyone expects indictments, especially in Georgia. Would this derail Trump’s campaign? Not necessarily, most of our sources say. “He loves to play the martyr, and would turn an indictment into a political plus,” several sources say in private.

China, the villain: It’s virtually impossible to find anyone in this town who has anything good to say — on the record or off the record — about China. The antipathy is overwhelming.

The most over-rated politicians? That’s a crowded field. Most sources will tell you that Pete Buttigieg can’t get elected dog catcher. And many sources will tell you — off the record — that Ron DeSantis is the new version of Scott Walker, who galloped out of the gate in 2016 and then fizzled. But the most over-rated politician may be Gavin Newsom of California, too liberal for the country, and saddled with baggage.

Under-rated politicians: Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Kamala Harris, and Bernie Sanders, all of whom are mocked in public — but in private they are viewed as formidable. All four “have large constituencies,” one analyst tells us.

Hottest issue among the lobbyists: The looming battle over extending the Trump tax cuts, many of which expire in two years.

A debt default? Wall Street is convinced that it won’t happen, but no one in this town can figure out how this will be resolved. With billions being thrown at shaky banks, the debt ceiling showdown could move up to early summer, a change in the timetable.

The issue that deserves more attention: The easy call would be immigration or urban crime, but the issue that shames Washington is the inability to deal with the tidal wave of fentanyl deaths. “There’s no easy answer,” many sources concede.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.

AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.

Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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