When is Joe Biden’s Nomination Certain?
Author: Greg Valliere
February 14, 2024
ALL OF THE BREATHLESS SPECULATION that Joe Biden might drop out of the presidential race this spring overlooks one very important factor — he has no intention of giving up a certain nomination. But that won’t stop the media from speculating about whether there’s a Plan B. There is.
BIDEN HAS BEEN BUOYED by support from Democrats in the wale of new criticism that his age may rule out another term. There’s no serious opposition to his nomination, which will become virtually certain after the March 5 Super Tuesday primaries, even though there will be numerous primaries until June 4, when he (and Donald Trump) will become the de facto nominees.
IF THERE ARE MORE BIDEN GAFFES, there will be endless speculation between June 4 and the Democrats’ convention, which begins on Aug. 19 in Chicago. Could Biden release his delegates then, just in time to throw the nomination to another candidate? That seems highly unlikely but not totally out of the question.
NOMINATING SOMEONE OTHER THAN BIDEN would require him to bow out, probably citing health issues. There’s no chance of another candidate taking him out, such as Dean Phillips, the Minnesota congressman. Biden would have to bow out. When the primaries end on June 4, he becomes the undisputed nominee. Some analysts think he may say he’s dropping out for the sake of the party and the country.
IF HE DID DROP OUT, that would begin an unprecedented political brawl to replace Biden, the kind of battle not seen in decades in American politics. The delegates in Chicago would almost entirely be Biden Democrats, and they would follow his lead in picking a nominee.
THEIR FIRST ISSUE would be what to do with Kamala Harris, who has stated in recent days that she’s “ready to lead.” Her polls aren’t good and Harris would be considered a clear underdog to Trump. But two of the Democrats’ strongest factions are women and blacks; would Democrats risk alienating that huge base? Some would.
NEARLY A DOZEN DEMOCRATS probably would jump in, mostly governors: liberal Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, to name just a few. Whitmer is a strong Biden defender; Shapiro is considered a rising star.
BOTTOM LINE: Much depends on whether Biden keeps making gaffes, which would further weaken him in the party and lead to speculation that Plan B may be necessary. If, on the other hand, Trump continues to make outrageous statements like his call for Russia to invade NATO countries that don’t pay their bills, Biden could look like the frontrunner by summer. Chances that he will drop out: no better than 20%.
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DEMOCRATS ARE PLEASED THIS MORNING by their comfortable win in the Long Island House race to replace the disgraced George Santos. Two big take-aways — first, there are several issues, primarily abortion and antipathy toward Trump, which bode well for Democrats in the general election. Second, Speaker Mike Johnson failed to get another GOP vote, keeping Johnson’s House majority at a razor-thin 219-213.
IN ADDITION TO WINNING THIS RACE, Democrats picked up a state House seat in Pennsylvania, where Trump became a major issue. He wasn’t a big factor in Long Island, where the relatively moderate Republican candidate seemed to run away from Trump, who predictably blasted her as “foolish” for not asking for his help.
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