What if One of the Candidates Bombs Tonight?
Author: Greg Valliere
June 27, 2024
TONIGHT’S DEBATE IN ATLANTA HAS DOMINATED WASHINGTON, for good reason. It probably will set the tone — and establish a front-runner — for the rest of the summer. Nervous operatives in both parties are asking, in private, what might happen if one of the candidates crashes?
JOE BIDEN IS SLIPPING in several new polls out in the past few hours; he’s down by about 4 percentage points nationwide — and is trailing Donald Trump in key electoral states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Michigan. If the election were held today, Trump would win.
SO THE BELEAGUERED PRESIDENT needs a clear win tonight. Ridiculous charges by Trump supporters that Biden will be “jacked up” on some type of performance-enhancing drug may have rattled the Biden team, which is preparing for other outrageous allegations. An army of Biden fact checkers is ready to respond to Trump but this small army may not be able to turn the tide.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF TRUMP STUMBLES TONIGHT, he will have a perfect fall-back: he will immediately focus on his vice presidential pick, moving up the announcement of his running mate by a couple of weeks. What better way to deflect attention from a weak debate performance than to settle the Marco Rubio, JD Vance, Doug Bergum race?
TRUMP HAS ANOTHER FALL-BACK: His sentencing on July 11, which probably will involve some type of probation, at the least. Of course, all trials and final sentencing will be delayed for months, probably into 2025. (If Trump wins the election, we think he will pardon himself.)
SO TRUMP HAS SEVERAL CARDS TO PLAY, whereas Biden will have to score a knockout. We have talked with Democrats in recent days who think Biden will be well-prepared, but they worry that he could fade in the last half hour of the 90 minute debate.
THE GREAT WILD CARD TONIGHT would be a poor Biden performance that could reinforce concerns about his age. There’s still an undercurrent among Democrats in this town that replacing Biden on the ticket is an option. We doubt that will happen, but Democrats will have six weeks before their convention to ask whether Biden is fading fast.
THE POLLS are showing a move away from Biden, and if he doesn’t perform well tonight, the party will face an agonizing choice. Removing Biden from the ticket is unlikely but not totally out of question. The stakes are very high tonight — as Trump appears to be moving into the lead.
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