Harris Momentum Persists
Author: Greg Valliere
November 4, 2024
THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT was stunning polls that showed Donald Trump may be in trouble — is he really trailing by 3 points in Iowa? And is Trump really ahead in Florida by just five points?
LAST MINUTE POLLS can be erratic, but there’s a sense among political strategists that Trump is losing support in the Midwest; if Iowa is this close, could he be fading in Wisconsin or Michigan?
THE PROBLEM FOR HARRIS is that winning Wisconsin and Michigan may not be enough; Pennsylvania is the big prize, and Trump seems virtually tied there.
THE OTHER DEVELOPMENT was inside the Trump camp, where dissent is growing. Several of his long-time staffers are in near-revolt, angry that Trump will not take direction and is unwilling to stick to campaign issues in his rambling rallies.
WE STILL THINK HARRIS HAS the slightly easier path to winning 270 votes. We also take note that troops are being deployed in areas where the race is tied. This could be a long slog.
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