Governments Everywhere are on Thin Ice
Author: Greg Valliere
December 17, 2024
FROM WASHINGTON TO MOSCOW, FROM PARIS TO OTTAWA, governments are on thin ice.
LET’S START IN WASHINGTON, where the moribund Biden Administration has checked out — except for issuing pardons — and may have to deal with a shutdown by the end of this week.
HOUSE SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON thought he had a budget deal — and adjournment — by Thursday or Friday, but that’s unlikely; a continuing spending resolution is still frozen by issues that should have been resolved months ago.
IMAGINE THAT — AN ENTIRE GOVERNMENT could be shut down on Friday night because lawmakers couldn’t get their act together on funding a new football stadium, funding farm aid and dozens of other issues that could stall just before the busiest travel week of the year. Will Congress carve out exemptions for air traffic controllers? Probably, but that’s more stress for travelers.
WE STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A DEAL by this coming weekend, but a message has been sent on Capitol Hill — there will not be a budget deal until the spring, when huge spending issues could shut down the government for weeks. Democrats will withhold support for a Johnson deal.
SO THE TRUMP HONEYMOON — in full bloom now — will begin to fade by March if not sooner, which does not bode well for speedy passage of a Trump tax cut, which looks months away.
AND THEN THERE’S CANADA, where the political world was rocked yesterday by the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland, who resigned from her position in Justin Trudeau’s teetering government.
THIS COULD BE THE EFFECTIVE END OF Trudeau’s government; can he hang on until the fall? Not if his top advisers resign en masse.
POLITICAL INSTABILITY IS RAGING IN France and Germany; the latter is suffering from political gridlock and an anemic economy; while in France there’s no real support for Emmanuel Macron. Weak economies seem to be a common theme everywhere; even China is frantically trying to pump up its economy.
PERHAPS THE MOST COMPLICATED country is RUSSIA, where a top general — an expert in nuclear, biological and chemical production — was killed by a drone attack yesterday — in Moscow, where Russians are no longer safe. Donald Trump wants a Ukraine deal, and he might get one by spring as civilians in Ukraine and Russia tire of the bloodbath.
AS THE HOLIDAYS APPROACH, some powerful leaders face major challenges; even Trump, who has to compromise with the narrowly divided Congress, and he knows it.
THE ONE LEADER who seemingly is invulnerable is Benjamin Netanyahu — he’s no Mister Nice guy, he refuses to compromise, and therein may lie a lesson to the others.
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