Handicapping the Democrats
Author: Greg Valliere
April 15, 2025
EARLIER THIS SPRING, we handicapped the 2028 Republican field (JD Vance in the lead, with Donald Trump Jr. ahead among the party’s MAGA base). Now several Democrats are showing signs of running, so let’s handicap them this morning.
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE NO CLEAR LEADER, but a dozen or more candidates. Our take:
The field: A huge list, from sports loudmouth Stephen A. Smith to leftist Jamie Raskin to Mark Cuban to far left Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
10. Corey Booker: His filibuster last week gave the New Jersey Senator some badly needed publicity.
9. Jared Polis: The Colorado governor looks like a candidate already, and could make some noise.
8. Chris Murphy: Our upset special, the Connecticut Senator is excellent on TV and popular within the party
7. Wes Moore: The dynamic Maryland governor could be a major player.
6. JD Pritzker: With tons of money and a fierce ambition, the Illinois governor could mount a serious run, but his state is a fiscal basket case.
5. Kamala Harris: She may run for governor of California or run for president again. Harris has decent support within the party, but she made several unforced errors in the presidential campaign.
4: Josh Shapiro: Articulate and ambitious, the Pennsylvania governor will bounce back quickly after an attack on his home, and he will be a serious candidate.
3. Andy Beshear: The insiders’ favorite, the Kentucky governor polls very well among independents and even Republicans.
2. Gavin Newsom: He seemingly has it all — good looks, articulate and bright. But is the California governor too liberal for the country? California is a blessing and a curse, with a dynamic economy — but with huge budget problems which have made Newsom ambivalent about jumping in.
1. Gretchen Whitmer: The early frontrunner — dynamic, fairly moderate, fiercely ambitious and from the upper Midwest. The Michigan governor is a fresh face in a party that needs someone new.
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