The Wild Canadian Election
Author: Greg Valliere
April 28, 2025
WE’VE COVERED DOZENS OF ELECTIONS, but very few have been as unpredictable and crucial as the one that will end tonight in Canada.
AS THIS YEAR BEGAN, the Liberal candidate, Mark Carney, trailed by as much as 25 points against the Conservative Pierre Poilievre, who seemed to be coasting to victory.
THE DONALD TRUMP FACTOR: The election turned dramatically during the winter, thanks to Donald Trump’s repeated calls to make Canada the “51st state.’ He wasn’t kidding, and Canadians were furious.
THEN CAME TRUMP’S calls for massive trade tariffs against Canada, which falsely was blamed on fentanyl, and a full-fledged trade war was on. Canadian voters broke for Carney, the central banker who is from conservative Alberta.
NOW, WITH THE VOTING ENDING TONIGHT, the race may have tightened again. Surprisingly, Trump has been quiet — and Poilievre has been hammering away on the country’s lack of affordable housing and other costs that have angered the voters.
THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF ANGLES — check out this morning’s Wall Street Journal, which contains a long article on the changing mood in Quebec, where anti-Trump nationalism has helped the Liberals.
BOTTOM LINE: Carney could win a majority of the vote; a plurality is virtually certain. The focus will be on Trump in the next few days. We think he and Carney will get along much better than Trump and Justin Trudeau.
AS FOR THE TARIFFS, we think they will remain for months with both countries agreeing in principle but not ironing out specifics for many months to come. As for the special relationship between the U.S. and Canada, the damage has been enormous.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER CARNEY OR POILIEVRE wins, a mood of suspicion will persist between the two countries. The revival of national pride will persist in Canada, but Carney will have to worry about the deep economic anxiety over issues like housing affordability.
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