Donald Trump Needs a Win
Author: Greg Valliere
May 2, 2025
DONALD TRUMP HAS FAMOUSLY DECLARED that the American public will get tired of winning with him as president, but that boast has hit a snag.
TRUMP HAS HEADACHES EVERYWHERE: The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial page, commenting on yesterday’s foreign policy shakeup, describes a bitter internal battle between foreign policy hawks and doves.
AND THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO SLIDE, as confusion over tariff policy has prompted businesses to slow hiring and spending; we’ll see if that shows up in the jobs report at 8:30 this morning.
PRESIDENT TRUMP, NOT SURPRISINGLY, needs a win. News outlets are reporting that he has implored his staffers: to give him a policy win; it doesn’t matter if it’s on geopolitics or domestic issues, just give me a win, he’s demanding.
SO WE CHECKED WITH SOURCES ON CAPITOL HILL, looking for potential wins:
TAX LEGISLATION: The “big beautiful bill” that Trump wants to hit the wall this week. There’s no agreement among Republicans in Congress on how to pay for the measure, and without fiscal restraint, at least a dozen House conservatives will reject the bill, which would kill it.
MONETARY POLICY: Chances of a win, ironically, have improved despite Trump’s anti-Fed rhetoric. Signs of a slowdown — or even a recession — have increased, which could prompt a pre-emptive move by Chairman Jerome Powell.
TARIFF DEALS: Trump reportedly has put tremendous pressure on his aides to announce a trade deal. We think he’ll get one with Japan or India, and he will promise more, Even if it’s only an “agreement in principle” Trump could portray it as a potential win.
COURT RULINGS: Trump has suffered several setbacks, including yesterday’s ruling that he exceeded his authority in citing the Alien Enemies Act as justification to expel immigrants. The courts are a potentially huge obstacle for Trump.
GEOPOLITICS: It’s been a rocky road, with a Ukraine deal still many weeks away and with U.S. talks with Iran sputtering. There’s a chance that Trump could get a deal with Israel to impose a cease-fire in Gaza, but that’s an uphill struggle.
BOTTOM LINE: As we wrote earlier this week, Trump has a major advantage — the inept Democrats, still without a leader or an agenda. And there’s the intriguing prospect that Powell will give Trump the victory he wants.
THE WORD FROM THE WHITE HOUSE is that Trump is headed for a big win on tax policy. But that’s a tenuous bet; prospects for his “big beautiful bill” have dropped significantly in the past few days.
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