Iran Looks for Exit Ramp
Author: Greg Valliere
June 17, 2025
IRAN IS SENDING SIGNALS that it wants negotiations, as its missiles and drones run out and the U.S. sends troops, ships and jets to the Persian Gulf. This morning’s Wall Street Journal article on the conflict is a must read.
DEVELOPMENTS ARE MOVING FAST, as Benjamin Netanyahu continues to press for regime change in Tehran, but if he can’t get that, he wants bunker busting bombs that he can aim at Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities.
IF THERE’S A CONSENSUS FORMING, it’s that Tehran has consistently miscalculated the Israeli assault, and Iran is clearly losing the air war. What we heard yesterday evening is that Donald Trump smells the victory he has been seeking and is eager to work with Israel — a potentially risky move.
IF IRAN GETS ITS EXIT RAMP, it will be a fragile peace. But Israel has vastly superior forces and should wrap this up by early July. The wild card is whether Iranian proxies will continue to fight, especially near the Strait of Hormuz.
* * * * *
CONGRESS BALKS ON MEGA TAX BILL: The long-awaited legislation landed with a thud in the Senate yesterday; there aren’t enough votes to pass the bill, and a July 4 target date for enactment is now looking very unlikely.
MODERATES WERE INCREDULOUS yesterday with a bill that has no SALT reform, even deeper Medicaid cuts than the House version and deficit reduction that’s far below the level sought by fiscal hawks.
REPUBLICANS CAN AFFORD to lose only three votes in the Senate, and right now they are five or six votes short. This bill eventually will pass, after a fierce battle this summer, because if it stalls, a debt ceiling crisis will loom.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
