Head-Spinning on Trade
Author: Greg Valliere
July 7, 2025
BACK TO CONFUSION: It’s not clear when tariffs will take effect, as President Trump and Cabinet officials seemingly return to the head-spinning, ad hoc policies that upset the markets in the spring.
TRUMP OBVIOUSLY HAS BEEN ON A WINNING STREAK, but trade is different. It’s not quite as simple as bombing Iran or enacting tax cuts — especially when the President keeps moving the goal posts.
CABINET OFFICIALS WERE INCOMPREHENSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemingly moving the deadline to comply with trade deals from this week until Aug. 1.
THE WHITE HOUSE CLAIMED IN THE SPRING that there would be 90 deals in 90 days, but there are only three vague agreements, with the U.K, Vietnam and China. All three are unclear and far from a formal signing. These talks are so complicated that it may be fall or later before there are clear-cut agreements.
WHATEVER IS AGREED UPON THIS WEEK will be “agreements in principle,” with Aug. 1 becoming the new target.
THAT’S UNDERSTANDABLE, because these negotiations are incredibly complicated. New tariffs could be between 10 and 70 percent, and Trump threw a 10 percent tariff at the so-called Bric countries last night, making final deals even more elusive.
THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, understandably, may be confused. Bessent says one thing, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says another, and the president sends letters. Get used to this.
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KEVIN McCREADIE, a fabulous boss and an even greater friend, died suddenly last Thursday. He was CEO and CIO of AGF Management.
Kevin treated everyone decently, quick to compliment a job well done. He was a great supporter of this morning product, and we will miss him tremendously.
Led by Blake and Judy Goldring, we will carry on and cherish Kevin’s memory. He loved his family and this firm, and we loved him.
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