Uncertainty Rising
Author: Greg Valliere
February 19, 2026
Rarely we can recall more global uncertainty all at once, from Tehran to the Federal Reserve. Here are some huge concerns:
A U.S.-Iranian war seems imminent. This morning’s New York Times details the massive buildup of sophisticated U.S. weapons the region.
What’s Donald Trump’s objective? At the least, he’s preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, which were already battered last year.
But hawks in the Trump Administration have a bigger goal: regime change, a payback for the murderous repression of dissent earlier this winter.
The Trump war hawks believe now is their best opportunity to strike; a settlement that would halt Iran’s enrichment of uranium seems unlikely.
Meanwhile, talks between Washington, Moscow and Kyiv have stalled. And tensions are rising between Cuba and the U.S.
Mixed signals from the Fed: Trump’s demand for lower interest rates may encounter deep divisions when Jerome Powell leaves the central bank.
We have argued for weeks that the economy doesn’t need more medicine, as the FOMC minutes asserted yesterday. Friction between Trump and new Chairman Kevin Warsh seems inevitable.
An Environmental Disaster: We’re surprised that there hasn’t been much publicity over the staggering spillage of over 220 million gallons of raw sewage in the Mid-Atlantic — among the most destructive spills in U.S. history
This will have enormous economic implications for tourism and seafood — but the big impact in Washington has been a war of words between Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Trump over who gets the blame.
Here comes the wealth tax: A few months ago the left was obsessed with “affordability” and now the focus will be on taxing wealthy Americans. In most states this will get vetoed, but a wealth tax will be a huge issue in New York and California — just as voting “reforms” grip the South.
Thankfully, the economy is solid — because significant obstacles loom this year.
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