Some Quick Observations on This Election Day
Author: Greg Valliere
November 8, 2022
November 8. 2022
HALLELUJAH — THE CAMPAIGN IS FINALLY OVER !!
HERE ARE SOME QUICK OBSERVATIONS:
* Joe Biden is out of gas, and everyone in Washington knows it.
* The markets have factored in a Republican sweep, but Democrats still have a chance to barely keep the Senate.
* The House will flip to the GOP, the easiest call of the fall.
* Polltakers are still struggling with their methodology; they appear to under-count
Trump supporters.
* The Democrats have ignored Hispanic voters, a huge miscalculation.
* The price of food and gasoline determined this election, and the White House was slow to react.
* Donald Trump will claim credit if the GOP has a great night but he crossed the line with conservatives with his stupid taunt of Ron DeSantis.
* Campaign ads were so ubiquitous and annoying that they actually hurt their sponsors.
* U.S. campaigns are way way too long. Canada gets it right, with about two months of campaigning.
* The Biden Administration’s stubborn refusal to accept the need for fossil fuels has backfired spectacularly.
* The issue of climate change got little traction despite unprecedented heat waves.
* The Supreme Court’s Roe v Wade ruling will have an impact — just not as huge as anticipated.
* Crime emerged as a dominant issue; Democrats overwhelmingly oppose defunding the police, but they can’t shake the label that they’re soft on crime.
* The public has shifted sharply against any new federal spending; aid to Ukraine may get a haircut.
* We won’t know all the winners and losers for days to come; recounts are inevitable — and a runoff in Georgia is possible.
* Our great fear? Charges of widespread election fraud would cast a very dark cloud over our increasingly fragile democracy.
FINAL CALLS: Republicans capture 23 House seats, far more than the 5 needed. The Republicans take the Senate by one seat. Democrats lose 5 governorships. Not quite a landslide, but close.
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