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A New Narrative on Two Huge Issues — Inflation and Urban Crime

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Insights and Market Perspectives

A New Narrative on Two Huge Issues — Inflation and Urban Crime

Author: Greg Valliere

June 12, 2024

THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM MAY BE SHIFTING on two huge issues that may determine the fall elections. Price cutting is all the rage among retailers, and crime statistics suddenly have plunged.

AFTER A YEARS-LONG RUN-UP IN PRICES that has caused many to pull back on spending, analysts sense a turning point, according to a report in this morning’s Washington Post. The article cites several examples of price cutting:

* Ford marked down its electric Mustang Mach-E by 17%.

* Target is slashing prices on 5,000 items, including Persil laundry detergent by 5%, Clorox wipes by 14% and Purina One cat food by 7%.

* At Walgreens, swim goggles and Squishmallows are discounted by as much as 40%.

* Some major retailers are taking sweeping steps. Ikea has lowered prices three times in the past year, while Best Buy has been marking down appliances.

* Arts and crafts chain Michaels says it’s slashing prices on 5,000 items including stickers, canvases and T-shirts.

* And several fast food chains, like McDonalds and Burger King, are offering lower-priced options.

CONSUMERS ARE PULLING BACK on big-ticket items like homes, cars and washing machines, while also reconsidering smaller expenses like new shoes and fast food.

BUT PRICES ARE NOT PLUNGING in some areas of the economy — prices for services, housing, health care and insurance remain elevated.

THE POST ARTICLE CONCLUDES THERE MAY BE A TURNAROUND. The article quotes an expert who says that “Retailers overreached when they started jacking up prices,” says Mark Cohen, director of retail studies at Columbia Business School. “Business has gotten stuck. Things are slowing down. Companies are waking up and realizing they have to start reducing prices.”

* * * *
ANOTHER TURNING POINT — CRIME: Data released this week by the FBI show a sharp drop in violent crime. Homicides and rapes both declined about 26% in the first three months of 2024 compared with a year earlier, robberies were down about 18% and aggravated assault fell by about 13%, the FBI said. Reported property crime declined about 15%.

THE PUBLIC IS STILL JITTERY, as the local TV news usually begins with crime stories, and there’s still a sense of unease in big cities like Chicago and Atlanta. But one crime expert, quoted in this morning’s Wall Street Journal, proclaimed that crime is nearing 50-year lows. This issue isn’t a plus for Joe Biden, but it may not be a big negative if these trends persist.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.

AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.

Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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