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A Serious New Conflict Looms: Israel vs. Iran

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A Serious New Conflict Looms: Israel vs. Iran

Author: Greg Valliere

June 21, 2022

THE APPARENT END OF NEGOTIATIONS on a nuclear deal with Iran has set into motion deadly assaults, almost certainly launched by Israel, against Tehran’s top nuclear experts. Several have been assassinated in recent weeks as both sides vow to ratchet up the conflict.

THIS COMES AS MIDEAST EXPERTS report that Iran may be within weeks of producing a crude nuclear bomb, although development of a delivery mechanism appears to be many months (or longer) away. The Israelis, fearful that Tehran is getting closer to having a nuclear bomb, are vowing to strike Iran itself, according to several Western publications, including the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.

ISRAELI AND AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS have been carefully watching as Iran digs a vast tunnel network just south of its Natanz nuclear production site, in what they believe is an ambitious Iranian construction of new nuclear facilities so deep in the mountains that they can withstand bunker-busting bombs and cyberattacks, the New York Times reports.

ISRAEL, MEANWHILE, HAS STEPPED UP ITS CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAN in the past year, with cyberwarfare, strikes using small drones to hit Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities and an attack on an Iranian drone base, according to the Journal article.

SINCE THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL WAS SCRAPPED BY DONALD TRUMP, Tehran has moved aggressively to produce weapons-grade uranium; it may be too late to stop that. But the Israelis are determined to thwart the production of nuclear warheads that could be mounted on missiles that could reach nations throughout the region.

AS TENSIONS MOUNT, U.S. OFFICIALS still cling to hope that talks could resume on a nuclear deal, but most experts think the negotiations are on life support; Iran has dismantled cameras that were monitoring its uranium enrichment facilities, a sign that Tehran has little interest in negotiating, most analysts believe.

THIS HEIGHTENED TENSION COMES as Iranian agents launch attacks on Israelis in many regions of the world, especially in Turkey. And just yesterday — in what surely isn’t a coincidence — Iranian ships narrowly missed hitting U.S. ships in the Persian Gulf. Three vessels controlled by Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps buzzed two American ships at what the U.S. military called “dangerously high speed.”

THE MOST OMINOUS DEVELOPMENT, reported yesterday in the Wall Street Journal, is that Israel is considering an offensive that would be far more lethal than simply targeting scientists. The Israelis apparently want to bring the conflict to Iranian territory, not just its agents and proxies.

THE PROSPECT OF INSTABILITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF as global energy supplies tighten is still another reason why we think the U.S. will have to dramatically increase defense spending, especially for shipbuilding.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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