A Serious New Conflict Looms: Israel vs. Iran
Author: Greg Valliere
June 21, 2022
THIS COMES AS MIDEAST EXPERTS report that Iran may be within weeks of producing a crude nuclear bomb, although development of a delivery mechanism appears to be many months (or longer) away. The Israelis, fearful that Tehran is getting closer to having a nuclear bomb, are vowing to strike Iran itself, according to several Western publications, including the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.
ISRAELI AND AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS have been carefully watching as Iran digs a vast tunnel network just south of its Natanz nuclear production site, in what they believe is an ambitious Iranian construction of new nuclear facilities so deep in the mountains that they can withstand bunker-busting bombs and cyberattacks, the New York Times reports.
ISRAEL, MEANWHILE, HAS STEPPED UP ITS CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAN in the past year, with cyberwarfare, strikes using small drones to hit Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities and an attack on an Iranian drone base, according to the Journal article.
SINCE THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL WAS SCRAPPED BY DONALD TRUMP, Tehran has moved aggressively to produce weapons-grade uranium; it may be too late to stop that. But the Israelis are determined to thwart the production of nuclear warheads that could be mounted on missiles that could reach nations throughout the region.
AS TENSIONS MOUNT, U.S. OFFICIALS still cling to hope that talks could resume on a nuclear deal, but most experts think the negotiations are on life support; Iran has dismantled cameras that were monitoring its uranium enrichment facilities, a sign that Tehran has little interest in negotiating, most analysts believe.
THIS HEIGHTENED TENSION COMES as Iranian agents launch attacks on Israelis in many regions of the world, especially in Turkey. And just yesterday — in what surely isn’t a coincidence — Iranian ships narrowly missed hitting U.S. ships in the Persian Gulf. Three vessels controlled by Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps buzzed two American ships at what the U.S. military called “dangerously high speed.”
THE MOST OMINOUS DEVELOPMENT, reported yesterday in the Wall Street Journal, is that Israel is considering an offensive that would be far more lethal than simply targeting scientists. The Israelis apparently want to bring the conflict to Iranian territory, not just its agents and proxies.
THE PROSPECT OF INSTABILITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF as global energy supplies tighten is still another reason why we think the U.S. will have to dramatically increase defense spending, especially for shipbuilding.
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