A Stunning Offer from Kevin McCarthy; Russia on Its Heels
Author: Greg Valliere
January 5, 2023
Russia on Its Heels
January 5, 2023
IN A DESPERATE EFFORT TO BECOME HOUSE SPEAKER, Kevin McCarthy reportedly made a stunning offer last night to his opponents: he would agree to a provision that would require only one House member to oust him. Moderate Republicans gagged, but negotiations on this will continue today.
McCARTHY OFFERED LOWERING the threshold to oust the speaker from five members to one, a rule change he repeatedly said he would never accept because it would effectively neuter the Speaker. McCarthy also pledged yesterday to tap more members of the Freedom Caucus for top committee assignments.
IT’S UNCLEAR WHETHER THESE AND OTHER CONCESSIONS would be sufficient to budge the GOP hard-liners; some have asserted that NO concessions could persuade them to vote for McCarthy. Even Donald Trump — his power clearly diminished — has been unable to budge the hard-liners.
THERE’S STILL A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO that would elevate Rep. Steve Scalise to the Speakership, as we reported yesterday, but it may take until this weekend for a Scalise candidacy to gel. McCarthy will not relent quickly; he still thinks he can win.
MEANWHILE, ALL HOUSE BUSINESS has ground to a halt, since members have not been sworn in. What if there’s a foreign crisis that requires immediate funding? What if California needs emergency aid as floods persist for at least the next week? The House has ceased to function — it is unable to act.
* * * * *
RUSSIA ON ITS HEELS: Many experts thought Russia could launch a successful offensive this winter — or, at the least, enjoy a stalemate — but it’s increasingly clear that Ukraine is winning this war. There are four reasons:
First, the stunning ineptitude of the Russian military, which allowed troops to use personal cellphones in Donetsk that pinpointed their locations, allowing Ukrainian forces to kill or wound hundreds of Russians earlier this week.
Second, Russia is losing the air war, as its Iranian drones are easily shot down by the quicker Ukrainians.
Third, rather than cutting back on arms shipments, countries like the U.S. and France are sending more weapons. Washington has agreed to send more Patriot missiles and is considering shipments of Bradley fighting vehicles, which may be announced within days. And Paris is considering a major new shipment of light tanks.
Fourth, the weather in Europe has been unseasonably warm, reducing the threat that resolve against the Russians would crumble. Natural gas prices have plunged.
BOTTOM LINE: Vladimir Putin has been humiliated, at home and abroad, and that makes him dangerous. But truce talks by spring are increasingly inevitable — and the cellphone massacre will be viewed in future years as a major turning point.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.