A Thanksgiving Turkey — A Budget Deal That Everyone Will Dislike
Author: Greg Valliere
November 13, 2023
WE WON’T WASTE READERS’ TIME with a long explanation of this deal, which will change during the upcoming week. It has shaky support, since it doesn’t contain the spending cuts that conservative Republicans want, and it apparently will not include aid to Israel and Ukraine, which Democrats and the White House want.
BUT THE PROPOSAL would keep some of the government running until Jan. 19 while the rest of the government would stay funded until Feb. 2. Theoretically, this would give Congress time to reach a deal, but those arbitrary deadlines could stretch well into 2024. The upcoming Christmas season will be a catalyst, prompting the Senate and the White House to demand a bill by Friday.
THE FLAW IN JOHNSON’S PLAN is that there may not be enough House Republicans to vote for it, which means he may have to win votes from Democrats — and as Kevin McCarthy discovered, cooperating with Democrats is risky, and punishment is swift from House radicals.
WITH THE THANKSGIVING BREAK APPROACHING, a failure to fund air traffic controllers and TSA agents would produce an uproar against the Republicans. Our guess is that the angry public will get a temporary budget deal just before Thanksgiving, to be re-considered after the holidays.
THE FAR RIGHT — including Johnson — will have to swallow a deal that keeps the government running, as suspense builds later this week on a shutdown. This is why credit rating agencies like Moody’s continue to reduce the U.S. credit rating. Moody’s cited “dysfunction” in last week’s downgrade, but its scolding falls on deaf ears on Capitol Hill.
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