Budget Debate Drags On; Impact of Supreme Court on Trump Campaign
Author: Greg Valliere
February 29, 2024
TOMORROW NIGHT’S BUDGET DEADLINE will come and go, with still another extension that will avoid a government shutdown – and a resolution – well into March. The gridlock persists.
OF THE 12 SEPARATE BUDGET MEASURES, six are close to resolution but will require an extension. Even this isn’t guaranteed; House Speaker Mike Johnson almost certainly needs help from Democrats to pass the extension, and all 100 senators will have to agree to this speed-up. Just one senator could thwart the effort to approve an extension before the March 1 deadline.
THIS LATEST STOPGAP BILL comes as House members closed out negotiations on the Agriculture-FDA, Energy-Water, Military Construction-VA, Transportation-HUD, Interior-Environment and Commerce-Justice-Science bills, assigning to all of those a deadline of March 8. The text of this first bill may be released by this weekend with those spending bills clearing the Senate next week, funding those agencies through September.
THE REST OF THE FISCAL 2024 MEASURES – including more controversial bills that would fund the Pentagon, the Department of Homeland Security and the Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services and Education – will get a new deadline of March 22.
IT’S POSSIBLE THAT THIS SECOND BUDGET bill will include provisions to aid Ukraine, Israel and other U.S. allies, but with a new deadline of March 22, the outlook for Kyiv will continue to deteriorate as Russian troops advance in eastern Ukraine. Morale already was slipping – now the Ukrainians will have to contemplate Washington without the fierce support of Mitch McConnell.
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THE HEAD-SPINNING LEGAL MANEUVERS in a half dozen Donald Trump cases got top billing in Washington yesterday – not because of the merits of the cases, but because of the growing likelihood that at least some of these trials might not be resolved before the Nov. 5 presidential election. The willingness of the Supreme Court to consider Donald Trump’s claim of immunity could push a potential trial well into the fall.
WITHOUT GOING INTO ALL OF THE CASES AGAINST TRUMP, it appears to us that his ability to delay and delay, appeal and appeal, will become a crucial factor; Trump has brilliantly employed this tactic for decades. Our take is that Trump may wiggle out of jail, but where will he get approximately $450 million to pay court-imposed penalties?
OUR BOTTOM LINE is that one or more of these cases may be unresolved on Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2025. If Trump wins the election, he will move quickly to have his Attorney General squash the federal cases – leading to a Constitutional crisis and unrest if Trump wins pardons.
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