Chance of Ukraine Deal; Dovish Fed Appointment
Author: Greg Valliere
August 8, 2025
THE BIGGEST OBSTACLE TO A UKRAINE DEAL is the public opposition in both countries to an agreement that gives away too much, which would infuriate citizens in both countries, who have suffered staggering casualties.
DONALD TRUMP HAS FAILED to get either side to budge, but now he has an opening as he meets with Vladimir Putin likely later this summer. We have predicted an August summit, and we think there’s a decent chance that negotiations will continue into the fall.
BUT THERE WILL BE FIERCE OPPOSITION: the Ukrainian people don’t want to sacrifice more, and the Russian public wants more land and a deal that guarantees them Crimea.
RUSSIA’S ECONOMY IS IN TATTERS, and the country has suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties; Putin has to consider a deal that avoids even more sanctions from the West, which may be imminent. We think the upcoming talks will lead to a deal that will give both countries an exit ramp but infuriates the public in Moscow and Kyiv.
* * * * * *
INTRIGUE AT THE FED: Trump will get a new ally at the central bank, as he nominates outspoken dove Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler, who will step down today. Miran. who is Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, wants trade protectionism and a weak dollar, and would be a likely vote for rate cuts.
THERE’S NO SIGN THAT TRUMP will ease up on his pressure to get lower rates — in fact, we’re hearing that the president and his economic team want more than just 25 basis points at the September FOMC session. Unless economic data suddenly soars, they will press for a half point rate cut.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
