Open Revolt in Both Political Parties
Author: Greg Valliere
July 7, 2022
ANGRY DEMOCRATIC ACTIVISTS are demanding a more aggressive stance from Biden on issues ranging from abortion to gun control. They say (and insiders agree) that Biden has been indecisive, taking months to propose student loan relief and other initiatives.
BIDEN STILL MAY WIN a modest Build Back Better bill, with Sen. Joe Manchin agreeing to curb drug prices and spend more on the environment. But a perception is growing that the White House — which has lost several key aides in recent weeks — lacks any sense of urgency to get much done. There’s no real plan to deal with inflation, gun violence, illegal immigration, etc.
THIS HAS IGNITED A MOVEMENT to challenge Biden for the 2024 nomination. Many observers (including us) believe he won’t run again — but in a major change, even if he does seek re-election, Biden will face challengers who want a more activist agenda. (Of course, Biden’s embrace of the Progressive wish list has contributed to his plunging poll numbers.)
THE DIVISIONS AMONG REPUBLICANS are increasing, with Mitch McConnell and many leading GOP Senators openly calling on Donald Trump to delay announcing — that he’s running until after the Nov. 8 elections. Trump has the ability to make the 2024 election all about him and his 2020 election loss, which is the last thing most mainstream Republicans want to re-visit. They can taste a House takeover, and could gain the Senate as well.
BUT TRUMP HAS NEVER CARED MUCH ABOUT THE PARTY, which was clear when he cost Republicans two Senate seats in Georgia in early 2021. Trump needs a distraction from his mounting legal woes, and an early announcement could help change the subject.
WHAT’S CHANGED? The Democrats finally have some issues: abortion and gun control, and new evidence of Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 riots. But what also has changed is the view of Biden by the Democratic Left, which considers him ineffective and not worthy of a second term.
WE THOUGHT THESE FISSURES IN BOTH PARTIES would become apparent by winter, but everything is time-compressed. Over a dozen Democrats and Republicans are weighing a presidential run, and many may announce immediately after the Nov. 8 elections.
TRUMP MAY ANNOUNCE even sooner; he’s eager to re-litigate the 2020 election — a most unwelcome distraction for many Republicans this November; even his supporters increasingly believe he shouldn’t run again. Ironically, Trump and Biden have this in common.
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