Congress Returns, Faces Huge Workload
Author: Greg Valliere
September 2, 2025
CONGRESS RETURNS TO Washington Tuesday, facing a staggering agenda which includes a potential government shutdown, a legal fight over tariffs, a controversy with the Fed and several simmering foreign crises.
SO, WHAT WILL CONGRESS START WITH? THE EPSTEIN FILES, which may get a full airing by late this week.
THEN A FISCAL BRAWL WILL BEGIN, as both houses threaten a government shutdown by the Sept. 30 deadline. Both parties are bitterly divided on this issue, but they only have tiny majorities. So it’s a pretty safe bet that Congress will “kick the can” down the road.
IT COULD BE THE HOLIDAY SEASON before there’s a budget deal — GOP leaders in the House hate that likelihood but they may be stuck with it once again. In the Senate, Democrats are still seething over Chuck Schumer’s cave-in last spring, and in the House, Speaker Mike Johnson will have only a two or three seat majority.
IN THE MEANTIME, the Trump centerpiece — tariffs — may stall as the Supreme Court considers an appeal of last month’s ruling that the tariffs are illegal. There’s an Oct. 24 deadline to rule on that; if the tariffs are struck down the trillions in new revenues that Trump promised may disappear.
TRUMP IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO PLAY HIS CRIME CARD, which is the use of National Guard troops in several cities. Next will be Chicago, where 52 people were shot, with seven fatalities, during the long holiday weekend.
THE BIGGEST HEADACHE FOR TRUMP may be geopolitics. Fresh conflicts loom with the Houthis, in Venezuela, in Sudan and of course in Ukraine and Gaza, where a breakthrough seems unlikely. There’s nothing but bitterness in Washington toward Vladimir Putin, who played the role of rock star at the summit in China this past weekend.
TRUMP HAS INDICATED A WILLINGNESS to negotiate on trade with China, which is possible in our opinion.
AND WHERE IS THE ECONOMY HEADED? Lots of unknowns but as long as Jerome Powell heads the Fed, the economy should grow modestly. If Trump manages to oust Powell, the markets may worry that the mercurial president has finally over-played his hand.
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