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Conservatives Have Kevin McCarthy On the Run as Impeachment, Spending Issues Heat Up

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Conservatives Have Kevin McCarthy On the Run as Impeachment, Spending Issues Heat Up

Author: Greg Valliere

July 26, 2023

THIS WILL BE A BUSY NEWS DAY, as the Federal Reserve raises rates, a House Committee focuses on whether there’s a cover-up on Unidentified Flying Objects, and Hunter Biden accepts a very lenient plea deal. We’ll focus on the latter issue this morning.

CONSERVATIVES ARE FLEXING THEIR MUSCLES in the House; they have just enough votes to push Speaker Kevin McCarthy toward the right on two divisive issues — a potential impeachment of President Biden (sure to fail) and much more aggressive spending cuts (which could produce a budget crisis later this year).

THE ACTIVISTS HAVE TWO MAJOR ARGUMENTS against the Bidens: First, Hunter probably will avoid jail time in a plea bargain today that would lead to a jail sentence for most any other defendant. IRS whistleblowers have made a strong case that the Justice Department ignored their findings on Biden’s tax avoidance; there’s an outside chance that a Trump-appointed judge may reject the settlement today.

SECOND, THE WHITE HOUSE has changed its wording of the relations between Hunter and Joe. The president has contended, absurdly, that he and his son never talked about business, which may be refuted soon by witnesses who will testify that they did.

THE WHITE HOUSE FALLBACK now is that Hunter and Joe were not in business together, leaving unsaid the issue of whether they talked about business dealings. If they did, this would confirm a suspicion by many in Washington that neither Joe nor Hunter have been truthful. But is this impeachable?

MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE FREEDOM CAUCUS want to begin impeachment proceedings, which have a slim chance of succeeding. Even if the House impeaches, it’s very unlikely that two thirds of the Senate would vote to convict (see: Donald Trump).

AN IMPEACHMENT BATTLE would be only one of two headaches for McCarthy. He faces a revolt from the right wing on spending, with fiscal hawks demanding more cuts than were included in the debt ceiling deal earlier this summer. Two bills will be considered this week; if they fail to pass, it would signal a spending brawl this fall, with a government shutdown on the table on Oct. 1.

McCARTHY WANTS TO KEEP HIS JOB, so he will cave — on impeachment and spending; he has even agreed to a hearing today to explore UFOs amid charges in the House that the Pentagon has concealed the extent of mysterious sightings.
* * * *
TEAMSTERS TOUGH GUY SEAN O’BRIEN virtually guaranteed a strike against UPS for the past month, but he gladly took a deal yesterday that will encounter some opposition from the rank-and-file, which will have to ratify it in the next couple of weeks. We thought a brief strike was likely but we apparently were wrong.

THE “STICKY INFLATION” THREAT will continue on the wage front, however, as other labor unrest persists — auto workers, Hollywood artists, airline employees and others want generous deals that mirror the tentative UPS package.

THE PROPOSED UPS DEAL would raise the minimum pay for part-timers to $21 an hour — far above the current minimum starting pay of $16.20. The top rate for full-time drivers will rise to $49 an hour; they currently make $42 an hour on average after four years.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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