Democrats Coalesce Around Mark Kelly
Author: Greg Valliere
July 29, 2024
THROUGHOUT THE NATION and on Capitol Hill, Democrats have coalesced around Sen. Mark Kelly as the likely VP running mate for Kamala Harris. We would be surprised if the nominee is anyone other than Kelly, although two other candidates may still be in the running: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper.
BASED STRICTLY ON ELECTORAL VOTES, there’s an argument for the governors of Pennsylvania (19 votes) and North Carolina (16 votes). But Kelly’s resume is extraordinary: he’s a retired astronaut who also was a highly decorated combat veteran.
KELLY IS A LAW-AND-ORDER MODERATE (both of his parents were police officers) who has been displeased with the Biden administration’s inability to curb illegal immigration; Kelly would give Harris some cover on the issue, claiming that Republicans refused to accept a border deal after Donald Trump told them not to.
KELLY ALSO BRINGS a compelling personal story. His wife Gabby Giffords was shot and seriously wounded by a deranged assailant in 2011 and she still shows signs of her wounds. Giffords is Jewish, so it’s possible that the next first spouses could belong to the same religion.
WE’RE HEARING THAT HARRIS may take another week or longer before announcing her pick. The vetting process will be unlike Trump’s — he has stated that “I went with my gut” and listened to Donald Trump Jr., who was a strong advocate for picking J.D. Vance — who has gotten off to a very rocky start.
THE DEMOCRATS ARE STILL ON A SUGAR HIGH, raising about $200 million in less than a month and showing signs of unity ahead of the party’s mid-August convention. We think investors may have to abandon their belief that Trump is the clear front runner. The race is essentially a tie, a dramatic shift from late June, after Joe Biden’s debate debacle.
HARRIS CANNOT AFFORD ANY GAFFES, and still faces a tough battle, especially in the Electoral College. But she has electrified the Democrats in a matter of three weeks, raising over $200 million, and has brought fresh enthusiasm to a party that was morose earlier this summer. Kelly, the war hero, could boost their prospects even more.
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