Failures on the Hill
Author: Greg Valliere
December 12, 2025
One failure after another — the health care fiasco, a stalemate in Ukraine, and a looming budget crisis in January — raise questions about the 2026 agenda.
We spent much of this week with colleagues at an off-site who are exasperated, with good reason, by the Washington dysfunction.
Hopes are fading fast for health care subsidies; millions of Americans will lose benefits. The drums of war are getting louder in Venezuela, but Congress still plans to leave town next week — with little support from Donald Trump, who has no plan yet on health care.
This political ineptitude has major implications. With approval ratings for Trump and Congress now plunging — they’re close to breaking the 30 percent barrier — a landslide may be coming in the fall election. The House is likely to flip to the Democrats.
Everyone asks us whether a replacement is waiting in the wings. Nope. Trump has three years left in this term. Who’s the favorite in 2028? The GOP is focusing on JD Vance and Marco Rubio, while the Democrats’ frontrunner is Gavin Newsom, who may be too liberal for the general electorate.
For those of us who are ready for a change, we’re anxious to get a new Fed Chairman, which could be the biggest economic story of the new year. There may be a dysfunctional Congress, but the economy will continue to grow, thanks to the accommodative Fed.
A year ago, tariffs were the big concern, but the impact has been modest — quite a pleasant surprise for Trump’s detractors.
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