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Finally — an Issue Congress Can Agree On; Plus, the “Three Amigos” Dud

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Insights and Market Perspectives

Finally — an Issue Congress Can Agree On; Plus, the “Three Amigos” Dud

Author: Greg Valliere

January 11, 2023

THERE’S NOT MUCH CONGRESS CAN AGREE ON — this will be a year of bitter hearings and investigations — but there’s widespread opposition to China, which produced a surprising vote yesterday.

BY A VOTE OF 365-65 THE HOUSE AGREED to form a new committee that will explore the Chinese Communist Party’s economic, technological and security policies and the strategic competition between Beijing and Washington. A majority of Democrats supported the bill.

HOUSE SPEAKER KEVIN McCARTHY has long sought a special committee to investigate China, and tapped into the widespread agreement in Washington that “China is stealing our technology,” as McCarthy has frequently asserted.

IT’S UNCLEAR WHETHER NEW LEGISLATION CAN BE ENACTED but the renewed focus on China will keep relations rocky between the two countries. McCarthy reportedly is considering a visit to Taiwan later this year, which certainly would raise the temperature.
* * * * *
THE “THREE AMIGOS” DUD: Thorny economic issues between the U.S., Canada and Mexico were largely deferred as the summit ended yesterday evening. The hot-button issues included immigration, drug smuggling and the shaky democracy in Brazil, which were addressed with platitudes, not specifics.

ON A PERSONAL LEVEL, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador seemed close — and Biden finally agreed to visit Canada, probably in March.

OBRADOR PRAISED BIDEN for not “building even one meter of a wall.” He added: “we thank you for that, sir.” Republicans undoubtedly will use that sound bite, especially as Democrats inch closer to supporting some funding for a wall in a deal that probably will exclude Biden, whose immigration policy is incoherent and opposed by both political parties.

THERE WERE VAGUE COMMITMENTS to support economic growth — but no apparent progress on Biden’s controversial “Buy American” vow, offering generous subsidies to U.S. manufacturers of electric vehicles. There are still disputes between the U.S. and Canada on dairy and lumber trade, and both countries object strongly to Mexico’s increased energy use, which favors Mexico’s state oil company and its national electricity utility.

ONE POSITIVE WAS AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN CANADA AND THE U.S. to clear a backlog of applications — peaking this past year at 330,000 — related to the joint U.S.-Canada trusted traveler program called Nexus.

BOTTOM LINE: This summit probably will be remembered for what wasn’t accomplished, as crises loom in Brazil, Haiti and the U.S. border with Mexico. Obrador has agreed to take back some illegal immigrants, but that’s not an immigration policy. For Joe Biden that may be enough but his sunny conclusion didn’t reflect the conflicts.

“WHEN WE WORK TOGETHER, we can achieve great things,” Biden told Trudeau, adding that there is “unlimited economic potential” when the countries collaborate. “I’m lucky — I got Canada to the north and Mexico to the south.”


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

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Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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