Fresh Signs of Republican Problems in Senate Races
Author: Greg Valliere
August 19, 2022
THE HOUSE STILL LOOKS LIKELY TO FLIP back to the GOP, narrowly, but earlier this year McConnell and other party leaders expected to easily take both houses. The Senate currently is deadlocked, 50-50, with Kamala Harris breaking all ties for the Democrats. The GOP needs only a five-seat net pickup to take the House.
McCONNELl’s MAIN COMPLAINT is that the party has weak Senate candidates in several states — some have been endorsed by Donald Trump, who is locked in a bitter feud with McConnell.
HERE’S OUR LATEST TAKE ON THE SENATE RACES:
Clearly vulnerable Democratic seats: None.
Possibly vulnerable Democratic seats: Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire is only a slight favorite; luckily for her, she doesn’t have to face popular GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, who decided not to run.
Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat fighting to keep his seat, is slightly ahead of
Herschel Walker in Georgia, who’s arguably the weakest Senate candidate in the country.
Michael Bennett in Colorado is a slight favorite, hardly a shoo-in.
The Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto is in a tight race in Nevada.
Mark Kelly is the favorite to keep his Arizona seat but politics are very volatile in this state.
Clearly vulnerable Republican seats: The GOP seat in Pennsylvania is in jeopardy, as leftist John Fetterman has moved into a significant lead against stumbling Dr. Mehmet Oz.
Outspoken conservative Sen. Ron Johnson is trailing in new polls against a progressive Democrat in Wisconsin, another politically volatile state.
Possibly vulnerable Republican seats: Marco Rubio (R) is in a surprisingly close race to keep his Florida seat against Democrat Val Demmings, who is tied or leading in recent polls.
Republican J.D. Vance is only the slight favorite against moderate Democratic Rep.
Mike Ryan in Ohio.
Rep.Ted Budd, endorsed in his primary by Trump, is only narrowly ahead in North Carolina.
BOTTOM LINE: The Democrats may lose one or two of their own seats, although there’s a plausible case that they will lose none. The Republicans appear likely to lose at least two of their seats.
THE SENATE MAY WIND UP TIED ONCE AGAIN, or the Democrats could gain a 51-49 advantage — which would be quite a disappointment for McConnell, who thought earlier this year that the GOP could enjoy a net gain of three or four seats.
MUCH WILL CHANGE between now and Nov. 8 — the direction of inflation and the overall economy will be crucial — but it appears that in several states the issue of strident new abortion laws has been far more negative for Republicans than they anticipated.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
