Glimmers of Hope on Geopolitics
Author: Greg Valliere
June 11, 2025
LOOKING FOR A VICTORY: The Trump Administration is making some progress on two of the three major geopolitical issues — talks will continue with China on trade and Russia over the war with Ukraine, but a breakthrough this summer with Iran is looking less likely.
THE BIG GEOPOLITICAL story this week may be signs of progress in talks with China that the markets are watching closely. Officials from both countries reported agreement yesterday on a “framework.”
PRECISE DETAILS aren’t available yet on precious minerals, China’s enormous trade surplus and other issues, but at least relations may not worsen as talks continue throughout the summer. Like all major trade deals, this one will take many months to complete.
AND NOW THAT RUSSIA HAS EXECUTED its revenge attacks on Ukraine after the massive drone attacks on Kyiv, there’s a glimmer of hope that talks will resume between Washington and Ukraine.
VLADIMIR PUTIN GOT HIS REVENGE and now has to confront harsh reality: his economy is stagnant, supplies are limited, and his military has suffered enormous losses. Moreover, the Ukrainian drone attack sent a signal that Russia itself is vulnerable.
WE’RE HEARING THAT A 60-DAY TRUCE IS POSSIBLE SOON between the two countries. There are huge issues, especially Crimea, but with total casualties now over 1 million, both sides — and the Trump Administration — will ratchet up the talks.
WHILE THERE’S SOME OPTIMISM OVER CHINA AND RUSSIA, Iran seems unwilling to meaningfully compromise on its nuclear program or the issue of inspections. This worries global experts in Washington, because Israel’s hawks are itching to strike the Iranian bomb-making facilities.
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, with much on its plate within the U.S., will push hard for geopolitical agreements this summer. The consensus in Washington is that progress on all three of these issues is possible, as Trump gains political capital in Los Angeles and shows off his advanced military in Saturday’s parade.
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