
Gloom and Doom at the White House
Author: Greg Valliere
May 15, 2024
IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO EXAGGERATE the mood of gloom and doom in Joe Biden’s White House, where several key issues — including a retreat by Ukrainian troops — have the president’s top advisers on their heels, fearful that Donald Trump now leads in the fall election.
BIDEN’S ADVISERS THOUGHT THE HUSH MONEY TRIAL would be a serious negative for Trump, but it hasn’t affected his poll numbers. New surveys show Biden trailing in all but one of the key Battleground states, with a widening Trump lead in states like Georgia and Arizona.
AMONG DEMOCRATS IN THIS TOWN, there’s a growing fear that they could lose the White House and the Senate, while keeping the House. Still another Senate pickup for the GOP is possible in liberal Maryland, where moderate Republican Larry Hogan is the favorite.
OF ALL THE REASONS WHY BIDEN IS SLIPPING, the most obvious is a renewed public anxiety over inflation. Voters see prices surging for virtually everything, and the White House now is resigned to a summer without rate cuts from the Federal Reserve — and more trade friction with China.
PERHAPS THE MOST DEPRESSING DEVELOPMENT is the battlefield advances by Russian troops, who enjoy superior numbers in troops and weapons. The New York Times reports this morning that it could be July before new arms arrive in Ukraine, perhaps not in time to spare the collapse of the country’s second-biggest city, Kharkiv.
A RENEWED RUSSIAN ASSAULT, employing superior technology, may force Ukraine to divert thinned-out troops to defend an area that it took back from Russian forces in a stunning victory in the fall of 2022.
THERE’S SOME RELIEF at the White House to see Israeli troops prevailing against Hamas, but the likelihood of a simmering guerrilla war in the region has only increased the bitterness between Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu, which may never dissipate, complicating the a deep division among Democrats over the war.
THIS LITANY OF GLOOM has not had much of an impact on Biden. Axios and other newsletters report that the president is oddly sanguine, convinced that the polls are wrong and that he’s headed for a victory on Nov. 5. A momentum shift can’t be ruled out this summer, but widespread protests are likely at the Democrats’ convention in August.
THIS ELECTION OUTLOOK COULD BE REVERSED IN AN INSTANT if there’s a fresh scandal, some new gaffe, a health crisis, or a sudden geopolitical eruption. Accordingly, we haven’t made a final call. But for now, Wall Street and Washington are planning for a Trump presidency, which seems like an increasingly safe bet. Joe Biden is the clear underdog,
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