Good — But Not Good Enough
Author: Greg Valliere
July 12, 2024
JOE BIDEN NEEDED A BLOWOUT WIN last night, but he didn’t get one. We generously give him a B — but a B won’t stop the defections from Democrats, which resumed almost instantly after the press conference ended.
BIDEN SHOWED HIS KNOWLEDGE OF GEOPOLITICS, but the more lasting take-away may be that he got Vladimir Putin’s name mixed up with Volodymyr Zelensky’s and later called Kamala Harris “Vice president Trump.”
WE PREDICTED FOR WEEKS that the Biden would have more stumbles and gaffes, and it should be clear by now that he cannot avoid them.
THERE’S ACTUALLY NOT MUCH LEFT TO SAY THIS MORNING, so we will offer some odds:
Chances that a high-ranking Congressional delegation will ask to meet with Biden at the White House: 70%, a summit is in the works.
Chances that Biden will drop out within weeks: 60%, not a certainty, but there could be a tidal wave of defections starting today.
Chances that Kamala Harris will be the replacement: 75%. There’s still wishful thinking in the party that Michelle Obama might jump in, but she consistently tells friends that there’s no chance she will enter.
Chances for Kamala Harris’ running mate: Gretchen Whitmer, a 50% chance, could help the Democrats take Michigan; Josh Shapiro, a 30% chance, could help the party win Pennsylvania.
Chances that the party could unify and run a strong campaign: 60%. Voters might embrace a fresh face, a relatively young candidate who doesn’t get names mixed up.
IT’S WAY TOO EARLY to call the general election — Trump’s margin is surprisingly narrow — but we would make this assertion: Kamala Harris is under-rated.
BY SUNDAY THE FOCUS of the presidential race will shift to Milwaukee, where the GOP will break its silence on the Democrats. We keep hearing from Republicans who believe Trump has a very long memory and has not forgotten the stinging criticism he got from Marco Rubio and JD Vance. Someone else may be on the radar screen.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
