GOP Field is Shrinking as Trump Consolidates Power
Author: Greg Valliere
April 18, 2023
TWO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS CANDIDATES dropped out this past weekend. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the “the timing wasn’t right,” as he seemed disinclined to spend all his time and money in a futile run; and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin shut down his low-keyed operation. He’s worth about $500 million but that wasn’t enough to keep Youngkin in the race.
ONCE YOU GET PAST TRUMP, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, there are only a handful of serious challengers left: Mike Pence, whose polls are stuck below 10%; former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who may not top 5%, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, well-liked but — as he showed last week — not particularly sure-footed on issues like abortion.
THAT LEAVES THE LONG-SHOTS: Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a scathing Trump critic, and New Hampshire Gov.Chris Sununu, a moderate conservative who has not concealed his ambitions. Also on this shrinking list: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, and perhaps South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem; they’re essentially running for vice president, as is Haley.
IS TRUMP A SHOO-IN FOR THE NOMINATION? Almost, he’s clearly the prohibitive favorite. Part of this is because of his iron grip on the party’s base, and part is the inability of DeSantis or Haley to generate much enthusiasm.
WHAT IF TRUMP IS INDICTED LATER THIS YEAR on charges stemming from the Georgia election, his refusal to return top secret documents, or the Jan. 6 riots? There is no reason to believe that would hurt Trump; his popularity rating usually rises when there are fresh controversies. What about his age? Trump will turn 77 later this spring, but his energy level is exceptional.
THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM IN WASHINGTON is that Trump would get defeated handily in the general election, and that surely is possible. But we’re continually amazed by polls that show less than a third of Democrats want Joe Biden to run. He’s too old, they say, and hasn’t accomplished much (which is demonstrably untrue).
A THIRD PARTY REBELLION is possible, which could scramble the outlook (probably helping Trump), but third parties have never gotten much traction in the U.S.
WE WROTE EARLIER THIS YEAR — and got pushback — that there’s a plausible case for Trump’s re-election. It’s too early to make that call, but the first part of the scenario — Trump winning the Republican nomination — seems likely. In a general election anything can happen, as recent history confirms.
**Updated on April 20, 2023. An earlier version of this article incorrectly referenced Kristi Noem as “North Dakota Senator”. Kristi Noem is South Dakota Governor. Our sincere apologies for this error.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
