Hail Mary — How the Budget Mess Can Be Solved
Author: Greg Valliere
September 20, 2023
YESTERDAY’S CHAOS IN THE HOUSE (too arcane to describe in detail) must have convinced Speaker Kevin McCarthy that he simply doesn’t have the votes to break the budget impasse. He doesn’t even have the votes for a defense bill that 80% of Congress favors.
McCARTHY KNOWS he will get the blame if there’s a government shutdown on Oct. 1. No matter what he does, a hard core of about 20 extreme conservatives will reject any deal. In fact, it’s starting to look like this group doesn’t want any deal; they want to shut down government and boot McCarthy as speaker.
FACING A BUDGET CRISIS and the humiliation of losing control of the House, McCarthy has to consider a Hail Mary pass — get into bed with the Democrats. They can provide the votes he needs (52 supported the debt ceiling bill earlier this year). Wouldn’t the hard-liners then oust McCarthy as Speaker? Not if enough House Democrats pledge to vote for him — in exhange for budget favors.
ADMITTEDLY, McCARTHY’S SUPPORT OF AN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY poisoned the well for many Democrats. If a budget deal started to shape up, he would have to give assurances that an actual impeachment would be off the table, provided there’s no smoking gun that directly shows President Biden profited from his son’s deals.
McCARTHY IS A SHREWD OPERATOR, and he wants to stay in power. In the present climate it’s just a matter of time before Matt Gaetz and others seek to remove McCarthy as Speaker, but what if the speaker could get the 200 House Republicans who support a budget compromise to vote for McCarthy with just enough Democrats also voting for him?
THIS IS A LONG-SHOT, but veteran Republicans and Democrats in both houses are outraged that a tiny minority of House GOP radicals could block the defense bill and aid to Ukraine. There’s a deal to be had; it just depends on how badly McCarthy wants to keep his job.
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