Harris Levels Off Ahead of Debate
Author: Greg Valliere
September 9, 2024
THE REMARKABLE SURGE by Kamala Harris has leveled off. As we wrote last week, the polltakers aren’t infallible, but they all seem to agree that Harris has slipped slightly to a one or two point nationwide lead against Donald Trump.
THE PROBLEM FOR HARRIS is that she would probably lose in the Electoral College if she entered the election ahead by only one or two points — which is why tomorrow’s debate is so crucial. She needs a clear win.
NERVOUS HARRIS AIDES WERE LOOKING AT AN INCREASING LEAD in Pennsylvania just two weeks ago; she appeared to be ahead by 3 to 5 points, but now the state is virtually tied. Republicans in battleground states have portrayed her as a California radical.
WE TALKED WITH A STRATEGIST yesterday who predicted that Harris will do well tomorrow. The key is Trump, who refused tutoring ahead of the debate. He could stumble, our source said, citing Trump’s shaky performance in the June debate that was eclipsed by Joe Biden’s meltdown.
WHILE HARRIS could be over-prepared, stuffed with factoids and sound bites, there’s one issue that she may not be able to overcome — the economy, which is still fragile, and inflation, which still worries voters.
THE FEDERAL RESERVE ALMOST CERTAINLY will cut rates next week, which is likely to enrage Trump, who feels the central bankers are conspiring against him. Trump believes the president (him) should have a vote in deliberations by the Federal Open Market Committee.
THE POST-DEBATE MOOD MAY TURN UGLY: Trump contended over the weekend that the election will be stolen from him, and said he would sue if he lost the election,
IN A CHILLING WRITTEN POST, Trump said he would consider jailing lawmakers, political operatives, donors, illegal voters and corrupt election officials. Such people will be “sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our country,” he said.
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