How Donald Trump Could Win the 2024 Election
Author: Greg Valliere
August 2, 2023
FIRST OF ALL, Trump’s poll numbers have risen by about 10 points, on average, since his first indictment in late March. He leads in polls of every major state GOP primary, by at least 30 points, and in some cases by 40 points. He’s the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination, probably easily.
THE GENERAL ELECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT for Trump, since he just has his base and very little support from moderates. But the Democrats are likely to nominate Joe Biden, who has lukewarm support — even in his own party. Voters overwhelmingly believe Biden is too old for the job, and now Biden faces allegations that he lied about his business dealings with Hunter Biden.
MOST POLLS SHOW A BIDEN-TRUMP RACE is a dead heat, with Trump having a chance in the traditionally close states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, etc. It’s way too early to make a definitive call on the general election, but let’s say Trump has a chance against the increasingly frail Biden.
THAT SCENARIO WOULD BE COMPLICTED by several trials that will require Trump’s presence in court next year. But he could still run — there’s nothing in the Constitution that would stop him, and he could campaign on weekends and court breaks. He could be acquitted, but even if he’s found guilty he still could run — or serve — during what likely would be a lengthy appeals process.
THE ULTIMATE ISSUE: If Trump won the election, could he self-pardon? There are no definitive Supreme Court rulings on this, although many experts believe Trump could instruct his Justice Department on Inauguration Day to drop cases against him. Trump has declared that he would have an “absolute right” to self-pardon in federal cases.
IF TRUMP WAS CONVICTED IN A STATE, he could not self-pardon, although a friendly governor could pardon him (in Georgia but not New York). This would prompt a long and complicated process whereby Trump could claim that a state conviction would would have to be overturned because it would preclude him from carrying out the duties of his presidency.
A KEY PART OF THIS NARRATIVE is Trump’s track record of delaying and appealing; he’s a master at prolonging court cases against him for years while demonizing his prosecutors and judges as participants in a “witch hunt.”
THERE ARE MANY OTHER SCENARIOS THAT COULD UNFOLD, including the possibility that Trump could be jailed (there’s no clear Supreme Court ruling on whether he could serve as president while incarcerated, although many experts believe he could).
OUR BOTTOM LINE is that it’s not out of the question that Trump could win re-election and delay cases against him. It’s not likely, but it could happen. Talk about uncharted waters — this would be a tidal wave as the country (and foreign adversaries) confront an unprecedented period of political instability in the U.S.
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