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Is Joe Biden Certain to Run Again? Perhaps Not

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Insights and Market Perspectives

Is Joe Biden Certain to Run Again? Perhaps Not

Author: Greg Valliere

February 23, 2023

THE WASHINGTON ECHO CHAMBER is about to get a jolt this morning: the widely read Politico reported during the night that Joe Biden is not certain to seek re-election — as several Democrats keep their options open, ready to move if he doesn’t run.

DEADLINES HAVE SLIPPED for a Biden announcement; his aides report that a final decision may not come until April or even later.

FOR MOST OF LAST YEAR, we thought Biden would not run, largely because he would be 86 years old at the end of a second term. The job takes a toll; it’s incredibly stressful. Despite a relatively clean bill of health earlier this month at the Walter Reed Medical Center, Biden’s gait appears to be increasingly frail; he fell again while boarding a plane yesterday.

MOST WASHINGTON INSIDERS think the odds are 80-20 that Biden will run, especially since his job approval rating has improved and may go higher in the wake of his bold trip to Kyiv. Yet a clear majority of Democrats don’t want him to run again.

SO BIDEN STILL HAS NOT MADE A FINAL DECISION — he’s famously indecisive — and the Politico piece made it clear that several Democrats are keeping their powder dry. If Biden decides not to run, the spotlight would shine on these four Democrats:

Kamala Harris: She generated favorable publicity earlier this month for blasting
Russia for crimes against humanity, and has finally shown some gravitas recently in media interviews. A woman of color automatically would be a contender, but Harris would face many challengers.

Joe Manchin: The West Virginia maverick is likely to lose his 2024 Senate race, and he has never been subtle about his desire for the presidency. If Biden doesn’t run, Manchin almost certainly would enter the race, despite his deep unpopularity in the party’s liberal wing.

Bernie Sanders, 81, still wants to be president and he would be a near-certain candidate if Biden doesn’t run. Sanders, the angry Socialist, has tremendous grass-roots support, and Elizabeth Warren will focus on her Senate campaign, so there’s an open lane for Sanders.

Gavin Newsom: He’s just one of a half-dozen governors who are ready to run if Biden steps down. Newsom may be too liberal — with too much baggage — to win a general election, but he can tap Silicon Valley for millions in campaign contributions.

OTHER GOVERNORS TO WATCH are Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Phil Murphy of New Jersey, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, Gerald Polis of Colorado and Roy Cooper of North Carolina. Other potential candidates would include Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, although the latter attracts bad publicity like velcro.

BOTTOM LINE: Speculation about Biden’s plans will become a dominant issue in this town, starting today. The odds favor him running again, but that’s far from certain. There’s a reason why so many Democrats are preparing to run — just in case Biden calls it quits, which cannot be ruled out.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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