Joe Biden Could Still Win This Election
Author: Greg Valliere
June 11, 2024
WE HAVE SAID FOR MONTHS that Joe Biden is the underdog, but there’s been a slight move in the polls since Donald Trump’s guilty verdicts in the “hush money” trial. The presidential race, in our opinion, has shifted from a 2 or 3 point lead for Trump to a tie; the Real Clear Politics aggregate of all polls shows Trump ahead by 0.5 points, a statistical tie.
WHAT’S CHANGED? TRUMP’S APPROVAL RATING has slipped as Democrats emphasize that he’s a convicted felon, and his first campaign appearance since the trial focused on shark attacks.
TRUMP HAS AN ODD fixation with shark bites, which raised eyebrows in his rambling one hour Las Vegas speech this past weekend that included an angry threat not to pay his technicians because his teleprompter didn’t work.
BIDEN, MEANWHILE, WAS ADEQUATE in his appearances in Europe over the weekend, and will be in Italy later this week — showing decent energy despite the grueling schedule. And Biden gets bragging rights for the red-hot labor market in the wake of last Friday’s blowout jobs report.
SO WE THINK THIS RACE will stay essentially tied until the next big event — the June 27 debate between Biden and Trump, which actually may be the biggest event of the campaign between now and Nov. 5. As a debater, Trump is funny, nasty and relentless — but we continue to believe that his lack of focus on issues could hurt him. As for Biden’s debating skills, let’s just say that he often exceeds low expectations.
THE KEYS: Two factors stand out — first, Biden’s shaky standing among young people, African-Americans and Hispanics; the latter group is lukewarm at best toward him. The other factor is Biden’s poor polls on immigration, crime, inflation, foreign policy, etc.
AT SOME POINT TRUMP will have to tone down his grievances and explain how he would tackle these issues. The New York Times ran a scathing article over the past weekend on how Trump’s policies would affect inflation; the conclusion was that on everything from tariffs to huge tax cuts, he could actually worsen inflation.
SO AS TRUMP celebrates his 78th birthday next week, there are reasons to believe he’s a very shaky frontrunner. Yes, if the election was held tomorrow, he probably would win, but Biden has a narrow Electoral College path in the Great Lakes states to narrowly win, perhaps with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking more votes from Trump than Biden.
WHY WE WORRY: A virtual tie on Nov. 5 is still a plausible scenario, which would involve recounts, charges of fraud, and court challenges — which may not be resolved until days before the Jan. 20 inauguration day.
FOR NOW, WE’RE LOOKING FORWARD to the June 27 debate, wondering if Trump will continue to rant about issues like shark attacks, worrying Republicans in this city who disapprove of his persistent profanity at rallies. He will meet with senior Republicans later this week; they want to keep him focused on issues, not his grievances — and certainly not his fixation on shark bites.
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