Joe Biden May Not Run Again; DeSantis Stumbles
Author: Greg Valliere
September 19, 2022
“My intention, as I said to begin with, is that I would run again. But it’s just an intention,” the president continued. “But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen.”
BIDEN WILL TURN 80 on Nov. 20, just a couple of weeks after the congressional elections. If he loses the House — which is still likely despite a brighter outlook in the Senate — Republicans plan to spend much of 2023 investigating Biden and business dealings by his son Hunter. Biden’s agenda would be effectively finished if Kevin McCarthy becomes House Speaker.
AS WE HAVE REPORTED, most politicians in this town believe — in private — that Biden will not run again, despite some improvement in his dismal job approval ratings. About a quarter of Democrats are now saying in public that they want someone new.
THIS HAS PROMPTED SPECULATION ABOUT WHO MAY RUN: Gavin Newsom, the charismatic governor of crime-plagued California, is at the top of the list; he would have plenty of money from Silicon Valley. After Newsom, it’s a thin bench: Bernie Sanders, who just turned 81, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who’s itching to run, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who has been a disappointment.
WE REITERATE: If the Democrats lose one or both of the two houses, Biden is likely to announce by year-end that he’s not running. The same applies to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
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RON DeSANTIS STUMBLES: A lengthy profile in yesterday’s New York Times magazine left little doubt that Ron DeSantis is planning to run for president, and he may not be prepared to wait until 2028 — which probably would require him to take on Donald Trump in an explosive challenge beginning next year.
DeSANTIS FIRST HAS TO WIN re-election this November in Florida, where he’s favored. But Hispanics in the state are furious at his shipment of mostly Venezuelan immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard. It’s a campaign stunt that has backfired; Venezuelans are fleeing a repressive dictatorship, and are being used as pawns.
DeSANTIS HAS TREMENDOUS SUPPORT in the Republican base, which loves his willingness to take on elites. But party insiders note that he’s relatively inexperienced and has a very small group of advisers. Will he apologize to the Venezuelans? How DeSantis handles this episode will be telling.
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