Joe Biden’s Very Bad Week
Author: Greg Valliere
May 10, 2024
JOE BIDEN IS STILL VIRTUALLY TIED with Donald Trump, but within the Washington Beltway, Biden has had a very bad week — squandering the political capital he earned when Congress approved aid to Ukraine, Israel and others. Biden is increasingly viewed as an unreliable ally — not the image an American president wants.
BIDEN’S ATTEMPT TO TIE FUTURE AID TO ISRAEL to a less bloody stance against Hamas has stunned this city. The iron-clad U.S.-Israel alliance is now in tatters, and the improved ties between Biden and Republicans have been frayed as GOP lawmakers who voted for military aid now feel betrayed.
REPUBLICANS STUCK OUT THEIR NECKS and now they’re blamed for what the Wall Street Journal calls Joe Biden’s “arms embargo” of Israel. To quote the Journal: “The message from the White House, in other words, is that Israel shouldn’t have large bombs or small bombs, dumb bombs or smart bombs, and let it do without tanks and artillery too. Now isn’t a good time to send the weapons, you see, because Israel would use them.”
A WIDER ISRAELI ATTACK, which could soon target the Hamas stronghold in Rafah, is the terrorists’ “reward for using civilians as human shields. Israel is at war, assaulted on multiple fronts. Denying it U.S. arms is an invitation to its enemies to take advantage, in hostage talks and on the battlefield,” the Journal says.
BIDEN GOT WHAT HE WANTED IN APRIL: Congress approved military aid to Israel, 79–18 in the Senate and 366–58 in the House. It sent a signal to U.S. allies and adversaries. Now, after relatively small crowds of protesters called out Biden, he apparently thought he could lose the election if he was viewed as too close to Israel. No — he could lose the election if he ignores the party’s base. Young people care more about affordable housing than geopolitics.
DONALD TRUMP CAN STILL LOSE THIS ELECTION, dragged down by moderate voters who don’t like him; centrists in states like Pennsylvania are sick of Trump. It’s unclear how much damage has been inflicted by the Stormy Daniels trial; maybe Trump lost a point or two in key states, but a resurgence of inflation anxiety may be hurting Biden more.
THE SUMMER POLITICAL CAMPAIGN BEGINS BY THE END OF THIS MONTH, with all sorts of wild cards: the persistence of inflation, huge geopolitical uncertainties, the challenge from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. etc. (although Kennedy’s lack of transparency on his health issues may make voters ask what else they don’t know about him).
FOR HAPLESS JOE BIDEN, his lack of unequivocal support for Israel is a stunner — not good enough for the antiwar kids on campuses, but shocking to the party’s moderate base, which always could be relied upon for generous campaign contributions. Sad to say, the big winner is Hamas, which has been rewarded despite its butchery.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.