Kansas Abortion Vote Scrambles the Political Outlook
Author: Greg Valliere
August 3, 2022
NEARLY 60% OF KANSAS VOTERS — in a state that overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump in 2020 — rejected an anti-abortion constitutional amendment in what Politico calls “a political earthquake.”
THE MOOD AMONG ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICANS in Washington is to stay away from the abortion issue and run against inflation and crime. The GOP still appears likely to capture the House, but the Kansas vote reinforces our belief that Democrats still have a chance to win the Senate, which is now tied at 50-50.
THERE ARE SEVERAL VERY TIGHT SENATE RACES — in New Hampshire, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania — where the abortion issue could make a difference at the margin. Particularly troubling for Republicans was the enormous turnout in Kansas.
SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE LAST NIGHT: Republicans were breathing easier after Missouri voters rejected a disgraced former governor, who probably would have lost in the general election, and in the closely watched Arizona election, it appears that the Trump-endorsed candidate for the gubernatorial nomination is losing to the Mike Pence-endorsed candidate.
NEVERTHELESS, SOME ELECTION DENIERS, who refuse to recognize Joe Biden as the 2020 winner, won last night. The most dramatic outcome in this summer’s primaries will come in two weeks in Wyoming, where Rep. Liz Cheney is the underdog.
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BOND YIELDS ROSE YESTERDAY, partly because a military conflict was avoided in Taiwan, and partly because several Fed officials stated that they support additional aggressive tightening. A consensus seems to be taking shape: the Sept 20-21 FOMC meeting will feature a debate between a 50 basis point hike or a 75 basis point increase.
CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT Charles Evans, considered a dove, said yesterday that after another rate hike of 50 or 75 basis points in September, the Fed still would be inclined to raise rates — probably by 25 points per meeting — into next year. Another dove, San Francisco president Mary Daly, said the Fed “is nowhere near” finished with its tightening.
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STILL NO WORD from Kyrsten Sinema on whether she supports the Schumer-Manchin bill. She’s talking with Joe Manchin and reportedly wants to wait until the Senate parliamentarian rules on whether the bill can evade a filibuster.
OUR TAKE is that Sinema will demand at least one major concession, probably
elimination of the bill’s “carried interest” provision. It’s extremely unlikely that
this package can pass by the end of this week; this could drag on until late August,
with new additions — and deletions — still to come as debate continues.
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