Logjam Breaking on Ukraine; Plus, the Post-New Hampshire Buzz
Author: Greg Valliere
January 25, 2024
THERE’S SOME MOVEMENT ON CAPITOL HILL on legislation to send military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The key development is a growing resignation in Congress that the other part of this bill — U.S. border reform — is dead.
FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS, as Kyiv ran low on weapons, the mantra in the House was that military aid had to be combined with immigration reform, but Republicans now realize that the border catastrophe is their most potent issue in the November elections — so they want to keep this theme, not resolve it, with a bill that conservatives consider too lenient on asylum and border security.
ENTER MITCH McCONNELL: The wily Senate Minority Leader, who turns 82 next month, has sent signals that he may be willing to kill the immigration provisions in exchange for a deal that sends billions to Ukraine, thus maintaining the traditional GOP hawkishness on foreign policy. This morning’s The Hill reports that McConnell now acknowledges that the border bill is far more complicated than Senators anticipated, and has little chance of passage.
DONALD TRUMP OPPOSES the pending immigration measure. Trump declared last week that “I do not think we should do a Border Deal, at all, unless we get EVERYTHING needed to shut down the INVASION of Millions & Millions of people.” Trump is calling the shots on Capitol Hill, and Congress will abandon immigration reform.
IN ADDITION TO KILLING THE BORDER PROVISIONS, Congress also may be willing to reduce generous economic aid for Ukraine from the package, while focusing on military aid and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Passage of a stripped-down bill could come in early March.
* * * * *
THE POST-NEW HAMPSHIRE BUZZ: We reiterate what we wrote yesterday — the New Hampshire results were filled with flashing red lights for the Trump campaign. He has soft support among moderates and suburbanites, who will determine the November winner. Support from Trump’s adoring base may not be sufficient to win the general election.
FOR NOW, WITH A TIDAL WAVE OF NERVOUS REPUBLICANS endorsing Trump, he probably would win if the election were held today. But it’s nine months away, and Trump will get softened up, mercilessly, by Nikki Haley — who infuriated Trump by acting like she won on Tuesday night. Imagine that — losing an election but claiming that you actually won.
THE OTHER TAKE-AWAY THAT HAD WASHINGTON BUZZING yesterday is the likelihood that third party candidates could gain some traction now that the public realizes that the election will be between Biden and Trump — which could incite more third party candidacies. It won’t just be Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The “No Labels” movement will announce its candidates after the March 5 Super Tuesday election.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
