Lowering the Bar for Alaska Summit; Plus, is a 50 Basis Point Fed Move Possible?
Author: Greg Valliere
August 11, 2025
AN ‘UNHEALTHY OBSESSION” WITH WINNING the Nobel Peace Prize has led Donald Trump to schedule a “premature” summit on Friday with Vladimir Putin, according to Washington insider Max Boot.
LIKE MOST HISTORIANS, the highly regarded Boot has his own obsession — the 1938 capitulation to Hitler by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. Nevertheless, the show will go on in Alaska this Friday, with most experts leery of predicting a breakthrough.
TRUMP STATED LAST FRIDAY THAT there might be a “transfer” of land in the eastern provinces, an idea that Volodymyr Zelinsky immediately rejected, Even though the Ukrainian people are war-weary, the latest credible poll in the country showed 78 percent opposed to any sort of transfer.
UKRAINE WILL NOT GIVE UP “OUR LAND TO THE OCCUPIER,” Zelinsky said this past weekend. Could Russia consider a deal that transfers land in the Donbas? Highly unlikely.
THE MOST TO HOPE FOR is an agreement to continue negotiations into the fall, with huge Russian losses continuing, thanks to weapons from the West and tough new U.S. sanctions — leading to an uneasy peace that looks like North Korea-South Korea or East Germany-West Germany.
COULD TRUMP GET MORE, offering a truce and land in exchange for security assurances? We doubt it, but if he does, the Nobel Prize will be his.
* * * * *
WHEN MARKET SENTIMENT changes on Fed policy, it often changes very quickly. This seems to be the case now, with the central bankers virtually certain to cut the funds rate at the Sept. 16-17 FOMC meeting. Trump and his advisers want 50 basis points, which cannot be ruled out if inflation data stays warm.
THE DISSENT WITHIN THE FED SEEMS TO BE RISING, and if the next unemployment report is as weak as the last one, the Fed will have to move, perhaps aggressively.
IT’S A RAPIDLY CHANGING FED — check out the Wall Street Journal editorial page this morning, which analyzes the views of potential governor Stephen Miran, who favors tariffs, interest rate cuts and a weak dollar.
WE ALWAYS THOUGHT a strong currency was desirable, but Miran apparently disagrees. Could the Senate support his nomination this fall? That would be a heavy lift, but Congress is getting an earful from voters and probably would bow to Trump on this issue.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2025 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
