More Important Than Trump
Author: Greg Valliere
January 16, 2024
LAST NIGHT’S IOWA RESULTS got massive media attention — Donald Trump won easily, surprise !! He’s still on track to be the GOP’s presumptive nominee after Super Tuesday on March 5. But the big news was elsewhere.
IRAN AND ITS HOUTHI PUPPETS showed no sign this weekend of easing their assault on Western shipping in the Red Sea; the Houthis struck again on Monday and pledged to launch more attacks. Iranian missiles also hit Syria and Iraq, as Tehran showed a more overt willingness to widen the Middle East war.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE CONFRONTATIONS in the Red Sea is stirring economic anxiety; a number of car factories in Europe have said they will suspend production because of disruptions to their supply chains, and the Reuters news agency on Monday reported that Qatar had suspended shipments of liquefied natural gas via the Red Sea.
MEANWHILE, RELATIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND THE WEST sunk to a new low after the Taiwan election, which infuriated Beijing and maintained support for a pro-independence stance; the vote prompted some small Pacific nations to break off relations with Taipei. At the least, this complicates relations between Washington and Beijing, and increases the likelihood that China will maintain support for Russia in its war with Ukraine.
KYIV DESPERATELY NEEDS MORE ARMS, but the U.S. Congress still appears to be unable to pass legislation to support Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. With Jan. 19 and Feb. 2 deadlines approaching for passing new funding, Congress probably will pass a so-called continuing resolution that would keep the government running until early March.
HOUSE SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON IS IN A BIND — his conservative allies are determined to withhold support for a budget bill until there’s progress on immigration reform, which still does not appear to be imminent. So Johnson will either allow a government shutdown or agree to a temporary deal; the latter is more likely, even though it would require Johnson to seek support from dozens of Democrats.
WHILE THE TRUMP LANDSLIDE got the media attention, the Chinese election and the likelihood of more instability in the Middle East are enormously important. As for Trump, the focus on primaries will soon fade; the issue is whether he can win the general election in November, and it still appears that he’s at least tied in the race for the White House.
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