New Polls Show Last-Minute Momentum Shifts in Key Races
Author: Greg Valliere
November 2, 2022
HERE’S OUR THINKING with less than a week before the election: Our forecast two weeks ago of a 17-seat GOP pickup in the House now looks too low. Republicans only need a net of five House seats, and it looks like they could gain 18-to-25.
THE MORE INTERESTING TREND is in the Senate, which is tied 50-50. While several key races are essentially tossups, the momentum has been tilting toward the Republicans in key races: Herschel Walker has pulled even in Georgia, and Dr. Mehmet Oz is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania — which means it’s possible that the GOP won’t lose any Senate races.
BUT TWO SENATE DEMOCRATS SUDDENLY LOOK VULNERABLE: In New Hampshire, where Maggie Hassan has led slightly for several months, a St. Anslem poll released yesterday shows the GOP challenger ahead by one point. And another incumbent has been sliding in Nevada, where Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto now clearly trails; a new poll shows her down by 5 points.
THERE’S ALWAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURPRISE — Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, for example, has run a strong campaign in Ohio. But this is a Republican year, with an unpopular President and deep voter anxiety over inflation and an erratic economy. We think the GOP will regain control of the Senate, probably by one seat or possibly by two.
INTO THE NINTH INNING: We’re at the point where turnout is now the key factor, and once again the Democrats look shaky as polls show lukewarm interest by young people, African-Americans and Hispanics. Barack Obama has fired up the party’s base with rousing campaign stops, but he’s one of the very few Democrats who has shown much fire.
THE OUTLOOK IS SO DISMAL FOR DEMOCRATS that the recriminations have already begun; a lengthy piece in this morning’s New York Times quotes many party leaders who are moaning about the impending red wave. What they now anticipate is Republican control of both houses, with a badly weakened president. We don’t disagree.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.