New Polls Show Last-Minute Momentum Shifts in Key Races
Author: Greg Valliere
November 2, 2022
HERE’S OUR THINKING with less than a week before the election: Our forecast two weeks ago of a 17-seat GOP pickup in the House now looks too low. Republicans only need a net of five House seats, and it looks like they could gain 18-to-25.
THE MORE INTERESTING TREND is in the Senate, which is tied 50-50. While several key races are essentially tossups, the momentum has been tilting toward the Republicans in key races: Herschel Walker has pulled even in Georgia, and Dr. Mehmet Oz is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania — which means it’s possible that the GOP won’t lose any Senate races.
BUT TWO SENATE DEMOCRATS SUDDENLY LOOK VULNERABLE: In New Hampshire, where Maggie Hassan has led slightly for several months, a St. Anslem poll released yesterday shows the GOP challenger ahead by one point. And another incumbent has been sliding in Nevada, where Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto now clearly trails; a new poll shows her down by 5 points.
THERE’S ALWAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURPRISE — Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, for example, has run a strong campaign in Ohio. But this is a Republican year, with an unpopular President and deep voter anxiety over inflation and an erratic economy. We think the GOP will regain control of the Senate, probably by one seat or possibly by two.
INTO THE NINTH INNING: We’re at the point where turnout is now the key factor, and once again the Democrats look shaky as polls show lukewarm interest by young people, African-Americans and Hispanics. Barack Obama has fired up the party’s base with rousing campaign stops, but he’s one of the very few Democrats who has shown much fire.
THE OUTLOOK IS SO DISMAL FOR DEMOCRATS that the recriminations have already begun; a lengthy piece in this morning’s New York Times quotes many party leaders who are moaning about the impending red wave. What they now anticipate is Republican control of both houses, with a badly weakened president. We don’t disagree.
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