No Budget Deal by Friday; Nikki Haley Exit Coming Soon
Author: Greg Valliere
February 28, 2024
KICKING THE CAN: Faced with the near-impossibility of reaching a budget deal by this Friday, Congress appears likely to take the easiest path – a continuing resolution (CR), keeping the government open as lawmakers debate a deal that should have been done last September.
WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY THAT AN EXTENSION was the most likely option, and sure enough – there were reports last night that House Speaker Mike Johnson is suggesting a CR to extend the first deadline from March 1 to March 8, and for the second deadline to move from March 8 to March 22. Those dates also could slip, of course.
JOHNSON AND HOUSE CONSERVATIVES can read the polls, which show the public overwhelmingly opposes a shutdown. But voters increasingly support a border wall and aid to Ukraine, so the seeds of a compromise are apparent.
WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE that an agreement in principle is close on the first four spending bills, perhaps within a day or two. Then lawmakers will need time to write legislative language. A second bill, consisting of the other eight components of the budget, also will require several days to complete, probably well past the March 8 deadline.
THIS LEAVES ASSISTANCE FOR UKRAINE UP IN THE AIR: Aid to Kyiv has passionate support among Democrats and moderate Republicans, who almost unanimously agree that Ukraine will lose the war without more U.S. aid. We think Ukraine will get U.S. funding – perhaps not as high as $60 billion – but enough to slow the Russian advance.
THUS BIDEN AND THE DEMOCRATS still have a chance to prevail on foreign aid, while Johnson and the Republicans may get completion of a wall and asylum reform. All of this will take time; final deals may not come until later in March.
* * * *
THE MEDIA LOVES DRAMA, so there was plenty of TV speculation last night that Joe Biden and Donald Trump had weak nights in Michigan. Really? Biden won 81% of the vote, while Trump captured 68% – landslides, in our opinion.
OF COURSE, BIDEN HAS TO WORRY about slipping support among Arab-Americans, but that bloc has traditionally shown support for “uncommitted” in Michigan. The surprise, actually, was that the Arab vote against Biden was so tepid. For Trump, the story last night was clear – Nikki Haley is running out of gas; she’s almost certain to lose overwhelmingly in the key Super Tuesday states next week.
THUS BY A WEEK FROM NOW, the nominees will be virtually certain. So it’s on to the general election coverage; Biden and Trump are close to tied in recent national polls – we continue to believe if the election was held tomorrow, Trump would win. But of course the election is about eight months away – plenty of time for Biden to come back, although the Electoral College map points to a steep climb for the president.
THE NEXT BIG POLITICAL STORY for the media will be Haley’s withdrawal from the race, which could come as soon as today, or sometime in early March – still another reason for the press to moan that there’s no horse race for the nominations. Those races are done deals.
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