No Plan B on the Budget; Harris Moves into Lead
Author: Greg Valliere
September 19, 2024
AS WE EXPECTED, HOUSE SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON lost his effort to pass a lengthy budget extension. His defeat yesterday raises the inevitable question: is there a Plan B? Not yet…
JOHNSON SAID HE WOULD CONSULT with rebellious House members, mostly Republicans, but time is running out. The fiscal year ends on September 30; without a deal, there would be a mild government shutdown.
THE IMPACT OF A SHUTDOWN would be modest for the economy and the markets, but it would give Democrats an issue to flog ahead of the election. The House is very much in play in the election and a shutdown wouldn’t help the GOP if there’s public anxiety about layoffs.
WHAT’S THE ANSWER? Probably a short-term extension of the spending package until mid-December, when we’ll repeat this all over again, resulting in another extension lasting until late winter. The dysfunction continues — and the credit rating agencies are watching.
* * * * *
HARRIS IS MOVING: This is still a very close election, but the polls — if you believe them — show that Kamala Harris is slowly moving into the lead. We don’t believe the specific polling numbers, but the trend is crucial — and the trend points to Harris.
SHE HAS GENERATED ENTHUSIASM with Hispanics, young people, African-Americans, women and moderates. Her growing support among moderates is crucial. But this election may be more about Donald Trump, whose negative campaign of insults has dismayed Republicans in this city.
WHETHER HARRIS WILL BENEFIT from the Federal Reserve’s generosity yesterday remains to be seen. Republicans are angry at the Fed, but the economy probably will remain a negative for her.
EITHER TRUMP OR HARRIS could cobble together 270 electoral votes and win the election. But she may be pulling ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan; if she adds Wisconsin or North Carolina, that could give Harris a narrow win.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. Our companies deliver excellence in investing in the public and private markets through three business lines: AGF Investments, AGF Capital Partners and AGF Private Wealth.
AGF brings a disciplined approach, focused on incorporating sound, responsible and sustainable corporate practices. The firm’s collective investment expertise, driven by its fundamental, quantitative and private investing capabilities, extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and their clients to high-net worth and institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations.
Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, AGF has investment operations and client servicing teams on the ground in North America and Europe. AGF serves more than 800,000 investors. AGF trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol AGF.B.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2024 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
