No Progress on Ukraine Aid; Handicapping Tonight’s Debate
Author: Greg Valliere
December 6, 2023
AFTER THE SHOUTING AND FINGER-POINTING yesterday in a closed door session on aid to Ukraine, Republicans walked out of the meeting. There’s less than two weeks before Congress adjourns for the year, probably not enough time to pass a bill that would re-write immigration and asylum laws while sending more funds to Kyiv.
THE MOOD AMONG UKRAINE SUPPORTERS IS GLOOMY: Talks have broken down in the Senate, with a growing chance that Vladimir Putin will will get his wish — an abdication by the U.S. that gives Putin an opening to other countries in central Europe.
AT LEAST A DOZEN REPUBLICANS stormed out of a classified briefing led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other Biden officials on the status of Ukraine’s war effort. The session was designed to shore up support for aid; instead, it worsened prospects for a bill.
MOST REPUBLICANS WERE ANGRY that Biden Administration officials came to the meeting without any concrete proposals on immigration, which prompted the walkout. Even Mitch McConnell, a staunch advocate of aid to Ukraine, said he would not support a bill without immigration reform.
WE STILL THINK THERE’S ENOUGH SUPPORT to get some aid to Ukraine and Israel in a slimmed-down bill. But getting that done before the holiday break is looking increasingly unlikely, and concessions by Democrats on immigration are now a virtual certainty.
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JUST FOUR LEFT: The non-Trump GOP field of presidential candidates is down to four, with tonight’s high-stakes debate potentially reducing the field further. Our handicapping:
Nikki Haley will be the target tonight, but she’s an excellent debater, likely to emerge unscathed. Momentum is tricky in the Iowa caucuses, which often benefit dark horses who rally after Christmas. Momentum in November, like Haley’s, often fades by New Year’s Day.
Ron DeSantis still has a chance, thanks to several key endorsements and his high-energy barnstorming of Iowa’s 99 counties. DeSantis has a chance to finish second to Trump; if he can’t clear that low bar, DeSantis could be out of the race by early spring.
Chris Christie needs a knockout performance tonight, as calls rise within the party for him to withdraw. Christie has some momentum in New Hampshire and is highly unlikely to step down any time soon. He also has a chance to finish second in Iowa.
Vivek Ramaswamy is in the low-single digits in most polls, but his vast personal wealth may keep him in the race into the spring. He’s got good energy.
TRUMP HAS BEEN THE RECIPIENT of harsh criticism in recent weeks as commentators contend that Trump would begin a second term with a focus on vengeance against his many enemies, which he doesn’t deny. Trump’s lead in the GOP field is so enormous that the only issue in the early primaries is not whether he will win, but by how much.
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