
Odds are Against Iranian Nuclear Deal; A Significant Election Result Last Night for Democrats
Author: Greg Valliere
August 24, 2022
DEMOCRATS HAVE A CHANCE to surprise to the upside in the Nov. 8 elections (see below), but we’re hearing that President Biden’s political advisers think an Iranian deal could backfire on the U.S. Events in recent days point to a deterioration of relations with Iran, not an improvement.
IN LESS THAN A MONTH, the Tehran government has been implicated in an assassination attempt on U.S. foreign policy hawk John Bolton; the author Salman Rushdie was nearly killed by a supporter of Iranian ayatollahs; and just last night, U.S. fighter jets attacked Iranian military bases in Syria. And Iran’s support for Russia in the Ukrainian war been blatant.
WITH THESE POLITICAL IMPEDIMENTS, a Joe Biden-supported deal would enrage the Republicans and prompt heated objections from Israel. This would become a major election issue, especially in Florida, which has crucial elections and over 650,000 Jewish residents.
TO COMPLICATE THE OUTLOOK, there are several unresolved issues — the extent of inspections of Iran nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency; disposal of Iran’s enriched uranium; the speed and extent of the lifting of sanctions on Iran; the designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as terrorists, etc.
BOTTOM LINE: The talks could drag on for many weeks, and a deal is possible by year-end, especially if panic grows over energy shortages this winter. But an agreement to ratify any pact seems unlikely in Congress, and there are detractors in Iran as well. Even if there’s an announcement in the next few weeks of an agreement in principle, we still would be skeptical.
* * * * *
IN A CLOSELY-WATCHED SPECIAL ELECTION YESTERDAY in a moderate upstate New York House district, Democrat Pat Ryan won. His key issue was abortion rights. We’ve always been reluctant to extrapolate one election or one economic statistic as a trend, but the New York result, combined with a Kansas abortion vote earlier this summer, is a warning signal to Republicans.
THE ENACTMENT OF HARSH STATE LAWS that ban abortion with virtually no exceptions has emerged as an election issue that may equal inflation. Polls show a deep anger among pro-choice supporters that may boost turnout in the general election.
IT’S STILL TOO EARLY TO MAKE A DEFINITIVE CALL, but the Democrats appear to have a plausible path to retaining control of the Senate. Republicans still have a good shot to flip the House, but that’s becoming a closer call.
THE NEXT POLITICAL ISSUE: Student loan reform, a potential lose-lose for Joe Biden. His proposal, probably coming later today, will be viewed by Progressives as inadequate, while Republicans will argue that the plan is inflationary and discriminates against those who paid off their loans.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.