Polls Are Puzzling — is Anyone Paying Attention? Plus, Canada — the NATO Pariah
Author: Greg Valliere
July 9, 2024
JOE BIDEN HAS HAD a disastrous two weeks — yet he only lost a couple of points in most polls. Political analysts are scratching their heads, wondering if anyone is paying attention to a race which is still surprisingly close.
MOST POLLS SHOW BIDEN TRAILING by only 2 or 3 points nationwide, a remarkably tight margin, considering his disastrous debate performance two weeks ago. Why?
OUR TAKE is that most voters made up their minds months ago — and they tuned out of the cringe-inducing debate. The public shrugged off the Trump guilty verdicts in NYC, which had virtually no impact on the polls. And the public probably isn’t wondering about Biden’s Parkinson’s doctor.
THE RACE MAY BE SURPRISINGLY CLOSE, but the outlook isn’t good for Biden because he still trails in virtually all of the key battleground states — Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, etc. And in the most important state of all — Pennsylvania — Trump appears to be ahead. Biden has a small lead in Wisconsin and Michigan.
REPUBLICANS THINK THEY HAVE A CHANCE to gain a point or two after the party’s convention, which begins next week — especially if they handle the VP rollout well while the Democrats continue to agonize over Biden’s health.
BOTTOM LINE: We think the race will head into the fall with Trump ahead by 3 to 5 points nationally, with a solid lead in the race to win 270 electoral votes. Biden and Trump are so unpredictable and volatile that the race could shift quickly — but how many voters can be persuaded to change?
THE ELECTORATE DECIDED MONTHS AGO that Biden was too old to be president, and that concern has grown. The public overwhelmingly believes that Biden isn’t fit to serve for four and a half more years; perhaps the only game changer would be signs that Trump’s cognitive skills are failing — but you underestimate Trump at your own peril.
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CANADA — THE NATO PARIAH: Just in time for the NATO summit in Washington, this morning’s hugely influential Politico newsletter contains a scathing article on the refusal of Canada to contribute 2% of its GDP to the alliance; virtually all members pay. This increasingly aggravates the NATO delegates.
IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO SUMMARIZE the lengthy Politico piece here, but suffice to say that anyone who follows Canadian-U.S. relations should read the article, because if Donald Trump wins the presidency in November, he will demand more from Canada, and relations between Washington and Ottawa could hit a fresh low.
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