Putin-Xi Bromance Cools; Pennsylvania Race Tightens
Author: Greg Valliere
September 16, 2022
PUTIN CONCEDED AFTER HIS MEETING with Jinping yesterday in Uzbekistan that Xi has “questions and concerns” over the war in Ukraine, a remarkably candid assessment that raised eyebrows among diplomats who were expecting a warm meeting between the two.
IN A STATEMENT after the meeting, China expressed a desire to “inject stability into a turbulent world.” To scholars who study the between-the-lines messaging of the Chinese government’s public remarks, “it sounded like an implicit rebuke,” the New York Times reports this morning.
RUSSIA HAS HOPED FOR WEAPONS FROM CHINA that have not arrived, forcing Moscow to rely on shipments from pariah states North Korea and Iran.
RUSSIA’S LOSS OF PRESTIGE, its thousands of casualties and growing domestic unrest in Moscow and other cities has some analysts thinking what was once unthinkable: could Putin be forcibly ousted? We think there’s a one-in-three possibility that his own generals will attempt to take him out.
COULD A PUTIN REPLACEMENT be even worse? That’s always a risk, but a new Russian leader would have an opportunity to seek an exit ramp in this disastrous war. After yesterday’s chilly meeting with Xi, Putin has to worry that his global support is tepid, even from fellow dictators.
* * * * *
GETTING CLOSER IN PENNSYLVANIA: The buzz this summer was that Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz would lose badly in his Pennsylvania Senate race against Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. We were in Pennsylvania this week and it appeared to us that Fetterman’s summer lead of about 10 points has been cut in half.
THE KEY IS FETTERMAN’S HEALTH: He suffered a serious stroke earlier this year and it’s unclear how much damage was done; in campaign appearances, his verbal skills have not appeared to be sharp. Fetterman has agreed to one debate, two weeks before the election, and for once the focus won’t be on his hoodie and short pants and leftist policies. The focus will be on his verbal skills.
OZ HAS IMPROVED AS A CANDIDATE after a rocky start, and he still has a chance to win, despite the near-certain defeat of a pro-Trump GOP gubernatorial candidate, Doug Mastriano, which will bring out voters who vehemently oppose him.
THE NATIONAL SENATE OUTLOOK this fall continues to be close to a deadlock but we Think the Democrats have a decent chance to retain the Senate, perhaps by one seat or in a tie — but that math depends on a Fetterman win that is far from certain.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.