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Rough Week for Biden Ends With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Creating a Buzz

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Rough Week for Biden Ends With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Creating a Buzz

Author: Greg Valliere

April 28, 2023

THIS HAS BEEN A ROUGH WEEK for Joe Biden, who forgot that he was in Ireland last week. His meeting with youngsters turned awkward yesterday when he couldn’t remember his last foreign trip, but he surely will remember this week — when Kevin McCarthy became a very major player — and another Irishman, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — generated a buzz in new polls.

BIDEN OBVIOUSLY LEADS in polls for the Democrats’ nomination, but suddenly Kennedy has become an irritant. One poll of Democrats shows him with 21%, while another shows him at 19%. Kennedy is an anti-vaxxer who embraces conspiracy theories, but with spiritualist Marianne Williamson at 9%, it looks like nearly a third of Democrats want anyone other than Biden.

THE RISK FOR BIDEN isn’t that he could lose the nomination; the risk is that he will get softened up for the general election if he under-performs in primaries. A dynamic Democrat — perhaps Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear — could electrify the race, many Democrats believe, but it’s likely that no mainstream Democrat will run against Biden, holding their fire until 2028.

MEANWHILE, BIDEN FACES TWO HUGE ISSUES —

First, the long-awaited recession seems to be closer, as a depression in the commercial real estate industry has already arrived, reflecting the impact of relentless tightening by the Federal Reserve, which probably will pile on with still another rate hike next week.

Second, Biden’s spin on the debt ceiling has crashed and burned, as McCarthy can now boast that House Republicans have produced a deal — while Democrats suddenly look like the obstructionists. Virtually everyone in Washington — including us — thought McCarthy would fail to produce a budget, but he won and the dynamics have changed.

THERE’S A GROWING LIKELIHOOD that a budget deal will produce a significant reduction of spending growth, as fiscal policy tightens after two years of aggressive Fed monetary policy. This probably will lead to a mild recession — but the two most likely scenarios are either a mild recession or a significant recession, just as the 2024 campaign heats up.

BIDEN MAY ENJOY the luck of the Irish, running against the deeply polarizing Donald Trump. But Biden is in trouble — not entirely because of his age because Trump will soon turn 77. The real focus of American voters is inflation and the sputtering economy, which may get worse in coming months, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appeals to voters who want anyone other than Biden or Trump.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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