Rough Week for Biden Ends With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Creating a Buzz
Author: Greg Valliere
April 28, 2023
BIDEN OBVIOUSLY LEADS in polls for the Democrats’ nomination, but suddenly Kennedy has become an irritant. One poll of Democrats shows him with 21%, while another shows him at 19%. Kennedy is an anti-vaxxer who embraces conspiracy theories, but with spiritualist Marianne Williamson at 9%, it looks like nearly a third of Democrats want anyone other than Biden.
THE RISK FOR BIDEN isn’t that he could lose the nomination; the risk is that he will get softened up for the general election if he under-performs in primaries. A dynamic Democrat — perhaps Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear — could electrify the race, many Democrats believe, but it’s likely that no mainstream Democrat will run against Biden, holding their fire until 2028.
MEANWHILE, BIDEN FACES TWO HUGE ISSUES —
First, the long-awaited recession seems to be closer, as a depression in the commercial real estate industry has already arrived, reflecting the impact of relentless tightening by the Federal Reserve, which probably will pile on with still another rate hike next week.
Second, Biden’s spin on the debt ceiling has crashed and burned, as McCarthy can now boast that House Republicans have produced a deal — while Democrats suddenly look like the obstructionists. Virtually everyone in Washington — including us — thought McCarthy would fail to produce a budget, but he won and the dynamics have changed.
THERE’S A GROWING LIKELIHOOD that a budget deal will produce a significant reduction of spending growth, as fiscal policy tightens after two years of aggressive Fed monetary policy. This probably will lead to a mild recession — but the two most likely scenarios are either a mild recession or a significant recession, just as the 2024 campaign heats up.
BIDEN MAY ENJOY the luck of the Irish, running against the deeply polarizing Donald Trump. But Biden is in trouble — not entirely because of his age because Trump will soon turn 77. The real focus of American voters is inflation and the sputtering economy, which may get worse in coming months, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appeals to voters who want anyone other than Biden or Trump.
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