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Russia’s Spring Offensive May be Stalling Already

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Russia’s Spring Offensive May be Stalling Already

Author: Greg Valliere

March 21, 2023

HOW TERRIBLY EMBARRASSING for Vladimir Putin — his summit with Xi Jinping has been obscured by continued grim news from the front lines. Ukraine has hung on to crucial cities in the East, while inflicting damage to Russian drones in Crimea.

THIS COMES AMID REPORTS that young Russian conscripts, sent unwillingly to Ukraine, are rebelling against the meat grinder on the front lines; the war has claimed at least 200,000 Russian casualties. As in 1918, Russian troops do not want to fight and are deserting.

XI SURELY MUST WORRY that he has picked the wrong side in the war. There’s no chance that the peace treaty proposed by China will win acceptance in Kyiv; the real suspense this week is whether China might agree to supply arms to Moscow. That would cross a “red line,” U.S. officials say — potentially leading to new American sanctions and a near-total diplomatic break with China.

RUSSIAN TROOPS HAVEN’T BEEN ABLE TO capture the eastern cities of Avdiivka and Bakhmut, despite Putin’s willingness to sacrifice thousands of troops. As long as those two cities hold out, Russia probably can’t advance further. Meanwhile, Ukraine reported yesterday that it destroyed a train convoy of Russian cruise missiles that were being sent to Crimea.

RUSSIA HAS NOT SEIZED A SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN CITY since last summer, prompting many Western military analysts to conclude that the Russians have run out of steam, as the Wall Street Journal reports this morning. If the Russians have stalled, the next stage of the war would be a Ukrainian counter-offensive, which could bring the fighting to the Russia-Ukraine border, boosted by new shipments of Western arms.

THE TALKS WILL CONTINUE, and we don’t rule out a telephone call between Xi and Volodymyr Zelensky. But any deal that allows the Russians to maintain a presence in territory they have captured is a total non-starter. The Ukrainian people have made enormous sacrifices, and they would adamantly oppose any deal that allows Russia to keep territory it has captured.
* * * *
A SMALL TURNOUT: Donald Trump has always been obsessed with the crowd size at his rallies, so he must have been disappointed that only about 50 protestors showed up at a pro-Trump rally in New York yesterday evening. An indictment is still likely in the next few days and we reiterate: Trump’s biggest legal headache isn’t in New York; it’s in Georgia.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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